Between the massive pitching matchup between Skenes and Misiorowski today—check out Keagan Smith’s write-up on that game here!—and the stratospheric price tag for Shohei Ohtani in DFS contests (right at $7,400 on DraftKings), it’s a bit of an S-Tier day for baseball no? So far I’ve written up the Padres vs. Nationals, Orioles vs. Rangers games for this evening, and and a breakdown on whether Ohtani is worth his price tag in your DFS lineups. Having said that, here are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals u7.0 total runs (+100)
This is one of those afternoons at Petco where the total looks ripe for the under. Nick Pivetta enters with a filthy 2.87 xERA, a dominant 1.08 WHIP, and a swing-and-miss profile tailor-made for a left-handed-heavy Washington lineup. The Nats rank 26th in wOBA against right-handers this season and strike out at a 24.7% clip versus righties on the road. Pivetta’s 30% CSW% and 9.7 K/9 will smother their bats, especially with Petco’s marine-layer conditions suppressing carry.
On the flip side, MacKenzie Gore brings a 3.19 ERA that’s primed for regression given his 4.24 xFIP and 9.1% BB rate. That lack of control will haunt him, but Petco’s spacious outfield and San Diego’s contact-heavy top four—led by Machado’s torrid 165 wRC+ this month—will produce singles and doubles rather than quick-strike homers. The Padres have scored under five runs in 58% of home games this season, and with the wind blowing in at 7+ MPH and game-time temps in the low 70s, deep drives will die at the warning track.
Both bullpens close with authority. The Padres pen owns a 3.32 ERA and 73.5% strand rate, while Washington’s middle relief unit is shaky but rarely tasked with multi-inning stress. Between Petco suppressing the long ball, Pivetta overpowering a vulnerable lineup, and Gore scattering enough hits to escape serious damage, the under is the sharpest play on the board. This one stays quiet.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers u8.5 total runs (-120)
This one sets up perfectly for the under, and I’m going all in on the numbers. Jacob deGrom looks like vintage deGrom again — a 2.24 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 25.7% strikeout rate this season speak for themselves. Baltimore can’t keep up. The Orioles rank 26th in wOBA (.297) against right-handers and strike out nearly 24% of the time. Even their better hitters, like Gunnar Henderson and Ryan O’Hearn, don’t do much damage against top-end velocity, especially at Camden Yards.
Young is going to give up some early offense — a 6.23 ERA and 2.19 WHIP in his tiny MLB sample make him extremely vulnerable — but this isn’t the type of park or game environment for Texas to blow it open entirely. Camden’s new left field wall and deep gaps have suppressed homers all season — park factor sits at 0.908 HR per game, bottom five in MLB. Even with temps pushing toward 100 degrees and the ball carrying better than usual to right-center, deGrom’s 0.71 HR/9 and elite chase rate will choke off Baltimore’s scoring.
Texas’ bullpen also owns a 3.29 ERA, top three in the bigs, so there won’t be any garbage-time fireworks. Combine that with Baltimore’s sub-4.0 runs per game pace and the fact that these two clubs have stayed under in five of their last six meetings, and you’ve got a textbook under.
Jacob DeGrom o6.5 strikeouts vs. Baltimore Orioles (-130)
Baltimore’s 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching is exactly the kind of profile that plays right into Jacob deGrom’s hands. The Orioles swing-and-miss tendencies jump off the page — they chase outside the zone at a 31.8% clip, one of the top-10 most aggressive rates in baseball, which fuels elevated strikeout upside for an ace like deGrom.
Even more telling, deGrom’s slider is generating a ridiculous 34.7% whiff rate this year, making it one of the most devastating put-away pitches in the sport. Every time he drops that slider off the outside edge, he’s forcing batters to expand and chase. Combine that with his elite 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings and his incredible 18.5 swinging strikes per game average, and you’re looking at a starter who thrives on fooling aggressive teams like this.
Baltimore also ranks in the bottom third in contact rate at 73.8%, which is more than enough for deGrom to rack up punchouts early and often. Given that he’s gone over this strikeout number in six of his last nine starts and is projected for a deep outing, this is a textbook matchup for him to completely dominate the Orioles’ free-swinging lineup.
