The Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in a familiar place as the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue in the second round. The Leafs are eliminated and will be in search of a new head coach first this offseason. After that, there are big question marks surrounding the roster, a group that has failed to make it past the second round despite making the playoffs in eight straight seasons. Changes may be on the horizon for Toronto. If that’s the case, where should GM Brad Treliving start? Let’s take a look.
Maple Leafs trade rumors
John Tavares
Tavares is entering the final season of his contract at a cap hit of $11 million. It’s safe to say Tavares isn’t worth that anymore. The Leafs are also inevitably going to hand over captain to Auston Matthews, so why wait until Tavares’ contract is up? If the Leafs decide to trade Tavares, Matthews slides into captain and the team can try to keep Mitch Marner around long-term. Toronto has a lot of work to do on the roster but would be looking at a lot of cap space if Tavares is moved.
The issue may be the Maple Leafs needing to take back some salary, around $3-4 million perhaps. Tavares is still a good player and would garner interest from plenty of teams. He makes more sense as a $7 million forward. The Leafs can try to bring in another top defenseman with TJ Brodie, Jake Muzzin, John Klingberg and Mark Giordano off the books. If the haul for Tavares is a top-4 NHL defenseman, prospect and a pick, that would be solid return.
Mitch Marner
A lot of people may call for Marner to be the one on the way out. His next contract could be something in the neighborhood of Matthews at $13.25 million per season. Having three players tied up for nearly $40 million in cap isn’t ideal, even if it is Matthews, Marner and William Nylander. The move could be to deal Marner now and not risk losing him in free agency next offseason. Marner for one season could fetch a big return for a team looking to compete in 2024-25 and/or get a jumpstart on his next contract.
We saw a bit of tension between Marner and Nylander during their first-round series exit to the Boston Bruins. Not to say that relationship can’t be mended or will be fine, but this is a group that hasn’t been able to get over the hump. Marner has been below a PPG player in the playoffs with 50 points in 57 games. While he has good postseasons, he also has disappeared at times, including this season, and 2019 through 2021.
A dynamic defenseman is who you would look to add in a Marner trade. Picks and prospects aren’t bad. The Leafs could use some more depth on cheaper, entry-level deals. Matthews Knies and Nicholas Robertson weren’t bad and are young players who can be apart of a new-ish core. Toronto really needs more blue-line depth or to solidify the goaltender position. Perhaps Marner in a deal for Predators goalie Juuse Saros might make sense for both sides. But goaltending can also be had for cheaper.
Who would you trade?
This is a tough call. If you deal Marner you may be better off just full reset and deal Tavares as well. The Leafs can still remain competitive with Matthews and Nylander, plus a better supporting cast with more depth. It also depends on who is the coach. If it’s Craig Berube, you likely keep both players and try to win in 2024-25. After that, Tavares is off the books and his $11 million can turn into something at the deadline or to maintain flexibility.
It would be a very Maple Leafs thing to do to deal Marner. A lot like when Toronto ran Phil Kessel out of town just to see him be apart of two Stanley Cup winners in Pittsburgh. So I think you keep Marner and see how things develop over the course of the season. If the team underperforms or regresses, you deal Marner and/or Tavares. But maybe a new head coach and a few adjustments to the roster and Toronto can get back to the second round of the playoffs. So long as the Leafs have Matthews and Nylander, the window to win in the playoffs is still open.
