Group F at the inaugural 32-team FIFA Club World Cup is one of the more tightly-contested groups, as any of the top three teams in the group could either be eliminated or move on. The only thing that has been determined is that Ulsan HD will be eliminated because it sits three points behind Mamelodi Sundowns, who won 1-0 when the teams met.
Fluminense currently tops the group on goal difference, having beaten Ulsan by two goals while Dortmund only beat Sundowns in a 4-3 thriller. However, the Brazilian side has the more difficult match, given the quality difference between Sundowns and Ulsan. The South African side, who I predicted as a dark horse to go through ahead of Fluminense, can only advance with a win by virtue of Dortmund’s win in the match between the two.
DraftKings Sportsbook is also offering single-use Profit Boost Tokens, eligible to use on 4+ leg SGP(x)s that are +300 or longer. Here’s my favorite in BVB’s fight for survival.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Ulsan HD Same Game Parlay
- Dortmund O2.5 Goals
- Both Teams to Score
- Erick Samuel Correa Farias 1+ Shots on Target
- Pascal Groß 2+ Tackles
If Mamelodi Sundowns weren’t so poor at getting their shots on target, it’s very possible that Dortmund would need to have to win this game in order to advance. The tale of the tape was dominance by the South African side: 59% possession and 16 shots to Dortmund’s eight. Fortunately for BVB fans, Sundowns’ finishing was sloppy and they only managed to put four of their 16 shots on target, so a poor performance by Gregor Kobel (just one save) didn’t matter in the end. After escaping with all three points, the Bundesliga giants should have no problem taking down an Ulsan team that should’ve been dominated by Sundowns if not for them putting just two of 14 shots on target.
The K-League side has struggled mightily on defense so far this competition. So far, it has allowed 19.5 shot attempts per game, the third-most of any team in the competition, and it has also recorded the 12th-fewest tackles despite conceding 69% possession. Given that Fluminense controlled 70% of the possession and attempted 25 total shots, Ulsan was fairly lucky to only concede four goals. I’d expect Dortmund, which plays a relatively attacking-oriented 3-5-2, to have the majority of the possession, at least in the first half, which should allow a strong attack led by Serhou Guirassy and Julian Brandt to hammer home goals.
However, once the result is relatively secure, Dortmund will have to start thinking ahead to the next round. If it finishes as the runner-up — the most likely scenario, given that Fluminense is a -115 favorite against Sundowns — which means it might start rotating out players such as Guirassy and Waldemar Anton. Ulsan, which has nothing to lose and is only motivated to avoid injury and to make its fans proud, should be aggressive on the counter from the get-go, and Erick — a 28-year-old Brazilian who’s the team’s most valuable player — is well-suited to record a shot on target for the first time this competition on volume alone. Higher attacking volume for Ulsan would also mean more opportunities for BVB’s defenders, such as Groß, to record tackles, and could lead to a second goal for either Um Wonsan or Lee Jin-hyun.
