Not only does the new-look FIFA Club World Cup carry a massive prize pool, with a total of $1 billion being paid out to 32 of the most talented teams from all corners of the globe, it also provides an opportunity for less-heralded teams to show their worth on a global stage. Teams will be forced to scout clubs they’ve never played before, and an upset feels as real a possibility as a rout.
On paper, Group F looks like one of the more chalky groups. German side Borussia Dortmund finished the season on a roll, climbing all the way from 11th to fourth in the Bundesliga to qualify for next season’s Champions League, and Brazilian side Fluminense have aging national team legends Marcelo and Thiago Silva. It’d be a surprise to see either Ulsan HD or Mamelodi Sundowns advance out of the group.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Dortmund is a clear favorite to advance, with Fluminense also projected to reach the knockout stage. Ulsan HD and Mamelodi Sundowns are heavy underdogs, although it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility.
Mamelodi Sundowns To Qualify From Group (+500)
Barring something ridiculous, BVB is going to qualify for the next round. At 456 million Euros, per Transfermarkt, they have by far the most valuable squad in the group, followed by Fluminense (77 million Euros), Mamelodi Sundowns (35 million Euros), and Ulsan HD (15 million Euros). Plus, they play in the most competitive league. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Fluminense joins them, but they’ve really struggled in the Brazilian Série A this season, sitting just 13th in the table, and Silva and Marcelo haven’t contributed much. At -400, those odds are way too short to consider.
I’m not sure why Ulsan has shorter odds to advance than Sundowns. They do sit third in the K-League — a more highly-ranked league than South Africa’s — but they’ve only scored 23 goals in 19 matches, so the attack concerns me against the likes of Dortmund, which tied for the seventh-fewest goals conceded in the Bundesliga, a league that includes Harry Kane, Patrik Schick, and, for half the season, Omar Marmoush. Erick, a 28-year-old Brazilian winger who scored five goals in his lone season with a Série A club, has scored just five goals from open play in 14 matches, and none of his teammates have contributed more than three goals. Plus, while Ulsan HD has won the Korean league in each of the past three full seasons, their continental track record hasn’t been as stellar; they failed to make it out of the group stage in the 2022 AFC Champions League and barely made it out the following year before falling in the semifinals.
Meanwhile, Mamelodi Sundowns have held a vice-grip over the South African Premier League, winning it in each of the past seven seasons, and they’ve clinched this season’s title, too. Their star player is Lucas Ribeiro, who nearly guided Bereven to promotion to the Belgian Pro League in 2022-23, as he had 19 goal contributions that season. He’s recorded 40 goal contributions across his first two campaigns in South Africa, and at 2.5 million Euros on Transfermarkt, he’s more valuable than any Ulsan HD player. In the 2025 CAF Champions League, Sundowns ousted both four-time champ ES Tunis and two-time defending champ Al-Ahly on their way to the final, where they fell narrowly to Pyramids. They might’ve also reached the final in 2023 if not for losing to Esperánce on the away goals tiebreaker, and they topped the group ahead of Al-Ahly in 2022. 10 of the 23 players on South Africa’s 2023 AFCON squad played for Mamelodi Sundowns, all of whom are still on the squad.
The South African giants also have their easiest match first, as they’ll take on Ulsan HD on June 17, which will be a huge opportunity to claim three points in a defensive affair, and while their second match is against Dortmund, a point isn’t entirely out of the realm of possibility. It’s realistic to expect them to have a chance on the final match-day, when they’ll play Fluminense. Fluminense has had the third-worst attack in Série A this season, and a 1-0 win would almost certainly see Sundowns advance.
