The Oklahoma City Thunder’s championship parade today marked the official conclusion of the NBA season, and now hoops fans’ attention turns squarely to the WNBA, which will have four games tonight.
After the Indiana Pacers came agonizingly close to an NBA title — they led at halftime despite star point guard Tyrese Haliburton tearing his Achilles tendon in the first quarter — the Indiana Fever will try to give the Hoosier State something to smile about. Tonight, the Fever will travel to face the Seattle Storm at Climate Pledge Arena.
All eyes will be on Indiana’s Caitlin Clark, the WNBA’s preeminent star. Clark has followed up a fourth-place MVP finish as a rookie by averaging 19.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 8.9 assists per game, though her efficiency is slightly down from last season. The Storm, meanwhile, are led by veterans Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins.
Seattle is a three-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-166 Moneyline), with the total set at 168 points. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer my prediction.
Fever at Storm prediction, pick
The Fever’s chances will be determined by the fingertips of Clark’s right hand. Unfortunately for Indiana, she’s currently mired in a shooting slump, having shot a combined 10-for-34 (29.4%) from the field and one-for-17 (5.9%) from beyond the arc in her last two games. She’s still been active both as a playmaker (19 total assists) and a defender (three total steals), but because of her rough shooting, the Fever lost both games. Among players players who have played at least 200 total minutes this season, Clark ranks fifth in usage rate, and she also ranks seventh in minutes per game, so it makes sense that Indiana can’t win with her playing poorly.
Seattle has been just average defensively this season, with their 98.6 defensive rating being the sixth-best mark in the league. Thankfully for Clark, though, the Storm’s defensive prowess is largely concentrated in the front-court, with forward Gabby Williams, Ogwumike, and center Ezi Magbegor leading the team in defensive win shares. Diggins ranks fourth on the team in defensive win shares, but that’s mostly because of her heavy minutes load; Erica Wheeler, who’s likely to draw the primary Clark assignment, has a net-negative impact on the defense. Given that Seattle has allowed the league’s sixth-highest three-point percentage this season, I like Clark’s shot to get back on track.
Her supporting cast has played well in recent games; Kelsey Mitchell has averaged 18.8 points per game in four games since Clark’s return from her quadriceps injury, Lexie Hull has shot 55.9% from deep, Aaliyah Boston has three double-doubles in her last four games, and Natasha Howard has been a solid defensive anchor. Most promising is the fact that after finishing last season as the league’s second-worst defensive unit, the Fever rank fifth in defensive rating so far. This season, opponents are shooting just 57.9% in the restricted area against Indiana, the league’s third-best mark, as well as the lowest mark from beyond the arc.
However, the Fever are exploitable both from the midrange and from floater range, which is where the Storm thrive. 7.5 of Ogwumike’s 14 field goal attempts per game come from those two areas, as well as 7.2 of Diggins’ 13.4. Ogwumike is one of just two players to make at least 1.5 shots per game from the restricted area, floater range, and the midrange. Indiana also fouls a lot, and Diggins ranks sixth in the league in free-throw attempts. Seattle also thrives off of turnovers and in transition, which could be problematic for Clark, who easily leads the league in turnovers per game. The Storm have won six of their last seven games, and I’m expecting another one tonight.
