In Group D of the inaugural 32-team FIFA Club World Cup, it all comes down to this. Flamengo, after its shocking 3-1 win over Chelsea, is guaranteed to go through on six points, and Los Angeles FC has zero points and has already been eliminated after losing to Espérance Sportive de Tunis, 1-0, on the second match day. Assuming Flamengo clinches the group with a point against LAFC, the winner of tonight’s 9 p.m. ET match between the Blues and ES Tunis will go through in second.
On the surface, the match shouldn’t be close, but one of the stories of this tournament so far has been UEFA teams’ seemingly lackadaisical attitude towards the competition and the energy brought by South American and African fans. Chelsea lost to Flamengo by two goals, and so did the North African side, so anything can happen.
If there is an upset, it would be a monumental one; Chelsea is a -360 favorite to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, with ES Tunis at +950 and a draw at +475.
The DraftKings Network will be closely covering the tournament, so stay tuned for more coverage.
Chelsea vs. Espérance Sportive de Tunis prediction, pick
The English giants, with two Champions League titles and six Premier Leagues, are among the biggest and most famous clubs in the competition, with a combined squad market value of more than one billion Euros and 42.6 million followers on Instagram. The Blues’ stature stands in stark contrast to ES Tunis, who have a combined market value of 20 million Euros and 352,000 Instagram followers, even though they have 34 Tunisian titles and four African Champions Leagues. Chelsea has one player with a market value below one million Euros, while Tunis has just seven players worth seven figures.
But the Blues’ performance in the game against Flamengo was extremely uninspiring. Chelsea managed just 49% possession and attempted 11 shots to the Brazilian side’s 13, and only four of its shots found the target, while nine of Flamengo’s did. Pedro Neto was once again the Blues’ best player, opening the scoring by converting a gifted one-on-one with the goalkeeper, but he could never quite get on the same page with Cole Palmer and Liam Delap, and twice the defense got beaten at the back post for tap-in goals. Robert Sánchez did fine — all of the three goals he conceded came from point-blank range — but Chelsea can’t give up those sorts of opportunities. To make matters worse, Nicolas Jackson got sent off in the 68th minute after a terribly-timed challenge, rendering the Senegalese national unavailable tonight.
Tunis didn’t dominate LAFC — it managed just 40% possession while operating in a 4-2-3-1 — but each team got off 10 shots and the North African side was far more clinical, managing five shots on goal to the MLS outfit’s two. Youcef Belaïli drew first blood in the 70th minute, when he took advantage of a fortuitous bounce in the penalty box to slot it past Hugo Lloris from a difficult angle on the left. Khalil Guenichi smacked one off the post that would’ve made it two. But Bechir Ben Said, who also appears regularly for the national team, was the hero in the 101st minute, when he saved Denis Bouanga’s penalty that would’ve salvaged a point for the Americans.
Thankfully for Chelsea, Jackson has only played 67 minutes in this competition, so the Blues should be able to survive without him, especially if Neto continues his hot form. Delap was a more clinical finisher in the Premier League last season, managing 0.34 goals per shot on target to Jackson’s 0.29, and he played with a far worse supporting cast in attack as the leading man for relegated Ipswich Town. Still, Chelsea scored just four goals in six Premier League matches against non-Southampton opposition with Jackson sidelined, so it’s far from a guarantee that its chances will amount to much. Espérance plays a physical brand of football, ranking in the top five in the competition so far in both fouls drawn and fouls committed, and it has allowed the seventh-fewest shots on target. I’m expecting a low-scoring Blues triumph.
