Group A2 of the Nations League has sure been a trip. Germany came in as the big favorites after a disappointing World Cup campaign, and they don’t look like the powerhouse we are used to. With Jürgen Klopp at the helm after three years under Julian Nagelsmann, it’s a big transition, and they’re taking their lumps so far with a 1-2-1 record. Facing a Serbian team that is 0-0-4 and out of the running, Klopp’s side has a chance to get back on track and push for the playoff.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Germany are -380 favorites, with a draw priced at +475. Serbia is set at +750 to spring the upset.
Serbia vs. Germany Pick, Best Bet
It’s hard not to feel for this Serbian team. They missed out on qualifying for the 2026 World Cup by a narrow margin, finishing one point behind Albania. This Nations League competition was a chance to build some momentum again, and they’ve once again been stymied by a thin margin, losing three one-goal games in their first four matches. With relegation all but assured, it’s time to play for pride.
That’s especially important with Dušan Tadić playing some of his last matches in a Serbian shirt. The national team legend is up to 115 career caps going back to 2008, and recorded his 64th career goal involvement with an assist in their opening match against Greece. Having already retired once from national team play in 2024, Tadić will be thinking long and hard about his future after this tournament; perhaps his teammates and coaches believe a strong final two matches could influence his decision.
Germany is in a very strange position as well. Klopp taking over the German team signaled that big changes were coming and that he’d have to mold his tactics to the roster. As a result, he’s cycling the squad heavily in his first tournament at the helm. A whopping 36 different players have appeared in the first four matches of the Nations League, as he’s essentially split the team into two squads to cover the group-stage matches. That includes a staggering 16 uncapped players, 10 of whom have made their senior debuts during this tournament.
On Friday, we will see many familiar faces as Germany rolls out its “A” team. Players like Joshua Kimmich, Marc-André ter Stegen, Nico Schlotterbeck, Kai Havertz, Jonathan Tah, and Niclas Füllkrug are expected to be the stabilizing force for this changing team. But all eyes will be on the new talents. Philipp Treu, the Freiburg fullback, made his debut in this tournament and leads the team in total minutes played. Star Bayern youngster Aleksandar Pavlović is getting more playing time in central midfield and is expected to be a big part of the Klopp project going forward.
The most intriguing watch of all will be Lennart Karl’s status. The 18-year-old wunderkind, anointed as Bayern Munich’s next big star, has struggled to consistently match the highs we’ve seen. But Klopp is invested in Karl, handing him a start in their last match against Greece. He may get a second look here, and if he does, we might be in for a treat.
In the reverse fixture, Germany’s “B” team dispatched Serbia 2-0. It was complete and utter domination, as Germany out-shot Serbia 32-1 and controlled 74% of possession. This time around, they’ll have more “A” team players in the lineup, and it should be another clinical effort by the Germans to get back in the race for a playoff spot. Serbia’s team is too weak up and down the pitch to pressure Germany, even with the turnover on the roster.
