Last Monday, there was a bit too much baseball news. The NBA took care of all the drama for us yesterday. Today, all we’ve got to think about is the fact that, this past weekend, batters hit the most home runs over any weekend across the entire 2025 MLB campaign (128). Check out more home run stats and bets in Zach Thompson’s Best Home Run Bets for today! Winds are carrying. Air is thinning. And balls are leaving the yard. All that said, So far I’ve written up the Orioles vs. Rangers, Reds vs. Yankees, and Mets vs. Braves games for this evening. Having said that, here are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Cincinnati Reds (+105) vs. New York Yankees
I love the Reds on the moneyline tonight. The Yankees look overpriced as road favorites behind Allan Winans, who simply hasn’t proven himself at this level. Even with gaudy Triple-A numbers, he faces an entirely different beast at Great American Ball Park against a Reds lineup that’s scorching at home. Cincinnati has gone 5-1 straight up in their last six in this park, and their bats have been lighting up AL East pitching all year. Elly De La Cruz is driving the offense with a 114 wRC+ and elite sprint speed that wrecks games. TJ Friedl’s getting on base at a .378 clip, and Matt McLain’s power-speed combo makes him a threat every trip to the plate.
Meanwhile, Nick Lodolo is as steady as they come. He’s delivering a 3.71 ERA and elite 1.11 WHIP this season with only 5.1% walks allowed. That kind of command is exactly what you want against a Yankees team striking out at a 25% clip this past week and showing signs of an offensive slump. The Yankees’ bullpen is usually a strength, but they’re stretched thin and coming into this game 3-7 straight up in their last 10.
At home, with a healthier rotation plan and a loaded lineup, the Reds are going to jump early and hold on. Forget laying the juice with New York and a green arm; take Cincinnati at +105 and lock it in.
Rangers (+105) at Orioles
Another slight-dog Moneyline!
Corbin’s been one of the quiet surprises of the Rangers’ rotation — 12 of his 13 starts have yielded three earned runs or fewer — and his 3.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP reflect a veteran who knows how to navigate a lineup short on dangerous left-handed bats. Baltimore’s missing Rutschman, Mountcastle, and Westburg, leaving a lineup that ranks 27th in wRC+ versus left-handers and struggles to generate extra-base pop (72 wRC+ this month). That’s a serious liability against a lefty who’s already proven he can strand runners at a 79% clip.
Trevor Rogers, on the other hand, is more of a question mark. Sure, his strikeout stuff looks fine, and the left-hander kept the ball on the ground at a 46.3% rate in his limited innings. But his command is shaky at 10% BB%, and he rarely pitches past the fifth inning. That spells bullpen exposure for an Orioles relief corps that owns a 4.50 ERA and 24th-ranked WHIP in MLB. Texas has the edge there too — their pen sports a stingier 3.24 ERA and a top-10 strand rate.
With Camden Yards playing pitcher-friendly tonight (low 80s, light breeze in from right-center), I like this as a game that stays close and quiet into the middle innings, then swings toward the deeper, more experienced team. Given the Rangers’ recent 7-3 road record and Baltimore’s lack of firepower without their core, I’ll take Texas on the Moneyline at +114 and lock that in.
Mets vs. Braves u8.5 total runs (+100)
Citi Field is a cavern at night, the wind will blow in at 7–8 mph, and that immediately takes the sting out of deep flies. Spencer Schwellenbach is the perfect arm for this park — 3.26 ERA, 24% K-rate, and an elite 4.2% walk rate. In his last 28 innings against the Mets, he’s surrendered just six runs with a ridiculous 28/4 K/BB. That’s dominance built on sharp command and weak contact, exactly what suppresses scoring.
And the Mets? They’re in a miserable rut. They’ve failed to top three runs in five of their last seven, and they’re making too much soft contact. Their team wRC+ over the last two weeks is bottom-five in baseball. Even with power names like Alonso and Soto lurking, they’re chasing too much and leaving men stranded.
That brings us to Paul Blackburn. Sure, his 6.92 ERA looks like a blinking neon sign for the over, but his 4.31 xFIP and 41.7% ground-ball rate suggest he can navigate five solid innings in this one. Atlanta’s offense is above average, but this park suppresses homers and they’ve hit the under in five straight games. Blackburn will lean on that sinker, let the defense work, and do just enough to keep the game under control before handing off to a Mets bullpen that ranks top-10 in ERA at home.
Both clubs trend toward low-scoring affairs — Atlanta is 28–17 to the under their last 45, New York is 9–4 to the under in divisional games at home — and the weather and pitching matchup scream another quiet night. This one stays under 8.5.
