The Braves march into Citi Field tonight smelling blood. They swept these Mets last week, and I don’t see them slowing. New York’s 1-8 slide screams vulnerability. Atlanta looks sharper every time out. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Sunday night baseball game between the Braves and the Mets.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Mets vs. Braves prediction, preview
Spencer Schwellenbach owns this matchup. The rookie righty holds a 1.93 ERA and a 28/4 K/BB in four career starts versus the Mets. That’s not a fluke. This season he’s been airtight — 3.26 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 24% K-rate, and an elite 4.2% walk rate. On the road, he’s even tougher, pounding the zone and forcing hitters into soft contact. The Mets’ bats have been feeble in this slump, generating a paltry .229 average and just 2.4 runs per game over their last five. That’s dead meat against a starter this dialed-in.
Paul Blackburn is a target here. He sports a 6.92 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP and a hideous 13.3% strikeout rate. His xFIP of 4.31 hints at slight regression, but that’s like putting a Band-Aid on a bullet wound. Blackburn’s allowing a .310 opponent average and can’t generate chases. Atlanta ranks top-10 in hard-hit rate and barrels per PA, and Matt Olson (.889 OPS vs righties) and Marcell Ozuna (.378 OBP) are thriving. This lineup feasts on mistakes. They will punish Blackburn early.
You might argue Citi Field suppresses offense, and the Mets’ 3.15 team ERA looks strong. Forget it. That number is built on arms who aren’t here tonight. Blackburn hasn’t completed five innings once this year. Atlanta will jump him and get into a leaky Mets pen with a 4.87 ERA and an ugly 30.7% inherited-runner score rate. Braves have plated 4.7 runs per game their last seven — they won’t stop tonight.
On the other side, Schwellenbach can cruise. Citi Field plays big and the forecast is light breezes blowing in at 7-8 mph. That matches perfectly with his elite 47.3% ground ball rate. Pete Alonso is 4-for-11 with one homer off him, but the Mets as a team post a .551 OPS against him. Francisco Lindor? Juan Soto? They’ve looked lost in this slump, and there’s no sign they’ll suddenly figure him out.
Braves vs. Mets pick, best bet
The trends scream Atlanta. Braves have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games against NL East opponents after a loss. Mets are 1-8 straight up in their last nine and 2-8 ATS in that stretch. Since last July, Atlanta is 7-1 against New York with six wins by three-plus runs. The under has cashed in 28 of Atlanta’s last 45 and nine of the Mets’ last 13 at home versus Atlanta. Even the books shaded this total toward the under.
I wouldn’’t overthink this. Schwellenbach is the better pitcher in better form. Blackburn is a liability. The Mets’ bats are flat. Braves offense is awake. Atlanta -1.5 (+135) is my play. Braves jump on Blackburn, Schwellenbach silences Citi Field, and we cash comfortably.
Best bet: Braves -1.5 (+125) at Mets
Schwellenbach is the whole bet, here—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
