The Pacers are hosting the Thunder for Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Thursday. The Thunder lead this series 3-2 and can clinch the NBA Championship with a win. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Thunder are a 6.5-point favorite for Game 6 and this contest carries a total of 221.5 points.
Below, I’ll break down Thursday’s action between the Thunder and Pacers and give a pick for the game. s
Thunder vs. Pacers preview, prediction
After the Thunder’s impressive comeback win in Game 4 to even this series 2-2, Oklahoma City took care of business at home in Game 5, defeating the Pacers 120-109 to take a 3-2 series lead. Indiana led by as many three points in the first quarter, but after that, the Pacers never led again, as the Thunder controlled the game and led by as many as 18 points.
Jalen Williams put on a show for Oklahoma City, scoring 40 points, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continued to flourish, with 31 points, 10 assists, four blocks and two steals. Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace were also both great off the bench, with 14 and 11 points, respectively.
For the Pacers, Pascal Siakam was outstanding with 28 points, six rebounds, five assists, three steals and two blocks, and T.J. McConnell added 18 points off the bench. However, Tyrese Haliburton was the main story for Indiana. The guard suffered a strained calf in the first half, and while Haliburton was able to log 34 minutes, he wasn’t much of a factor, finishing with just four points, seven rebounds and six assists. Overall, Haliburton shot 0-for-6 from the field, he had three turnovers and he finished a -13 in plus/minus, which was the second-worst rating for the Pacers.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Tuesday that Haliburton was getting an MRI to determine the severity of his injury, but the results of that MRI have yet to be released. Wednesday morning, Pacers’ head coach Rick Carlisle deemed Haliburton a game-time decision for Game 6 and the guard also told the media “I want to play. I’m going to do everything in my power to play.”
Given Haliburton’s comments and that the Pacers are facing elimination in Game 6, he feels likely to suit up. That being said, after Haliburton’s ugly showing in Game 5, its difficult to have confidence in him performing well if he is active. Haliburton leads the Pacers in plus/minus this postseason, and if he isn’t 100% as expected, Indiana staying alive and defeating the thriving Thunder is hard to envision.
For Indiana to have any chance if Haliburton is limited, Siakam will need to have a huge performance. Additionally, Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin and McConnell will all need to elevate their game. Nembhard did rise to the occasion when Haliburton got injured in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals against the Celtics, scoring 32 and 24 points in the two games Haliburton missed, but the Pacers won neither of those games against the eventual champion Celtics.
Indiana will be at home for Game 6 and role players tend to always play better at home, especially Mathurin in these playoffs, so there is some hope of a heroic performance from the wing or another Pacers’ role player. But even if that transpires, it doesn’t mean it will be enough for Indiana to defeat this elite Oklahoma City team.
Thunder vs. Pacers pick, best bet
The Thunder are an extremely confident group right now after beating the Pacers two games in a row, and with Haliburton dealing with the calf injury, Oklahoma City is in a prime position to clinch the NBA title in Game 6, despite this contest being in Indiana. This season, the Thunder are 37-12 on the road and 63-19 following a win.
Oklahoma City should win this game and backing the team as a 6.5-point favorite is totally viable, but there are some slight concerns here, as Oklahoma City is just 26-21-2 ATS on the road this season and the club’s biggest road victory during these playoffs was by just seven points. In this situation, betting on the Thunder at an alternate line is the safest route, with -4.5 at a -148 price on DraftKings Sportsbook standing out as the best option. Of Oklahoma City’s five road wins this postseason, three have been by five-plus points.
