The Golden State Valkyries have exceeded expectations in their first season in the WNBA, sitting at 5-5 and on a three-game winning streak. First-time head coach Natalie Nakase’s fast-paced style has proven a difficult challenge for opposing defenses to deal with, and French rookies Carla Leite and Janelle Salaün look the part of franchise building blocks.
However, Golden State’s roster has been hit hard by the EuroBasket tournament, as Salaün, Julie Vanloo, Cecilia Zandalasini, and Temi Fágbénlé will be representing France, Belgium, Italy, and Great Britain, respectively. In response, the Valkyries re-signed Chloe Bibby and Kaitlyn Chen, the latter of whom they drafted 30th overall this summer before releasing.
In what is likely to be her WNBA debut, Chen will face her former college teammate, Dallas Wings guard Paige Bueckers, with whom she won the 2025 NCAA title with Connecticut. Despite Bueckers’ excellent play, the Wings are a disappointing 1-11 this season.
Thanks to all of Golden State’s absences, Dallas is a 3.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-170 Moneyline), with the total set at 164.5 points. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer my prediction.
Valkyries at Wings prediction, pick
Thankfully for the Valkyries, their best player — forward Kayla Thornton — is American, so they’ll still have her services throughout Eurobasket. Thornton was named Western Conference Player of the Week after averaging 20.7 points and 11.3 boards per game on 46-36-82 shooting splits during Golden State’s three-game winning streak. That hot streak included a 27-point win over the Las Vegas Aces, the first double-digit win in franchise history. Thornton, a role player for the 2024 title-winning New York Liberty, is enjoying a surprising breakout season at the age of 32, and if the Valkyries win tonight, it’ll probably be because Thornton has recorded another 20-point double-double.
While one of Golden State’s wins came without Salaün, Zandalasini, and Vanloo, Fágbénlé scored 16 points in the Valkyries’ six-point triumph over the Seattle Storm, so Thornton will likely need to step up even more tonight. The Valkyries will have a lot of production to replace; they’ve been 13.4 points per 100 possessions worse this season with Salaün off the court. However, they’ve actually been 4.4 points per 100 possessions better without Fágbénlé, 20.5 points per 100 possessions better without Zandalasini, and 36.4 points per 100 possessions better without Vanloo, so it’s possibly that their absences will allow other players to thrive. Leite, who has scored double-digit points in each of her last two games, will probably be the biggest beneficiary, but Chen could step into the hole left by Vanloo’s absence, and Bibby could absorb some of Salaün’s or Zandalasini’s minutes.
Chen, the first Taiwanese-American player ever drafted into the WNBA, will have a huge challenge on her hands if she steps up to guard Bueckers. The rookie has been as good as advertised, averaging 17.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 2.8 combined steals/blocks per game while shooting 41.7% from deep, the 10th-best mark among players attempting three or more triples per night. While she missed five games with a concussion and illness, her comeback game was special, as she dropped 35 points, six boards, and four assists in a defeat against the Phoenix Mercury. The Wings are 5.8 points per 100 possessions better with Bueckers on the court.
Bueckers is kind of all that Dallas has, though. The Wings have allowed the most points, sixth-most rebounds, and most assists per game while letting opponents shoot the third-highest field goal percentage, second-highest three point percentage, and attempt the second-most free throws. DiJonai Carrington, last season’s most improved player, has seen a dip in her efficiency and a spike in her defensive rating, and Arike Ogunbowale is having the least efficient and least productive scoring season of her career. Maybe six-foot-seven center Li Yueru, recently acquired for two future picks, will help with a defense that has allowed opponents to shoot the fifth-highest percentage from within five feet, but I don’t buy that a player with 706 career minutes is the answer.
Yes, Salaün, Vanloo, Zandalasini, and Fágbénlé are talented players, but Golden State’s success this season demonstrates better than anything that the talent pool in the WNBA is way too deep for the 156 roster spots available league-wide. Chen and Bibby are absolutely good enough not to lose to the worst team in the WNBA.
