Whether people watch the WNBA for Caitlin Clark or for Angel Reese, all eyes will be on women’s basketball tonight, as 12 of the league’s 13 teams will be in action as part of a massive Commissioner’s Cup slate. Reese, fresh off her first career triple-double, will be in action, as her Chicago Sky host the Washington Mystics for an 8 p.m. ET clash.
The Mystics are four-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-185 Moneyline), with the total set at 155.5 points. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer my prediction.
Mystics at Sky prediction, pick
Prior to Sunday night, Reese had never recorded more than five assists during any game in her career, so her triple-double came as somewhat of a surprise. She didn’t do anything flashy, but the passes she made were the smart ones, finding cutters in the pick-and-roll and using her gravity to generate high-post handoffs to her teammates. And, of course, she did what she does best, crashing the offensive glass to earn the Sky two points after an Ariel Atkins miss. Despite shooting just two-for-seven from the field, it might’ve been the best performance of Reese’s career, and she’ll need to keep it up if the Sky want to pull off the upset.
No less critical for Chicago on Sunday was 11th overall pick Hailey Van Lith, who doubled her total career scoring output by draining six of her eight shots for 16 points and five boards in 24 minutes. The southpaw has had a mediocre start to her WNBA career, shooting just 42.4% from the field and 20.0% from beyond the arc, but as long as she continues to put together performances like Sunday’s, she should continue to get playing time, especially with Courtney Vandersloot out for the season after tearing her ACL. The 23-year-old showed off some passing vision, even if she only finished with one assist, and demonstrated an exceptional understanding of floor-spacing principles and off-ball movement.
The Mystics, meanwhile, have been mediocre this season, posting just a 4-7 record and allowing the sixth-most points, second-fewest rebounds, and sixth-fewest assists. They’ve held opponents to the second-lowest field goal percentage and third-lowest three point percentage, which should allow Reese to accumulate her soon-to-be trademarked “mebounds”, but they’ve also shot the seventh-worst percentage from the field and the fourth-worst percentage from deep, and their assist-to-turnover ratio is nearly one-to-one. Washington also hasn’t been very active on defense, recording the fewest steals and third-fewest blocks despite being led by two-time steals champion Brittney Sykes.
There are some pluses, though; the Mystics draw the most fouls in the league, so while they rank third-to-last in free throw percentage, they manage to generate the second-most points at the charity stripe. That could be an advantage against Atkins and Cardoso, who are tied as the 10th-most foul-prone players in the WNBA, and put more pressure on inexperienced players like Van Lith. Their weaknesses are also the Sky’s; Chicago gives up the most turnovers in the league while getting blocked at the highest frequency, and they allow the fewest points in the paint, where Reese likes to operate.
