Massive, massive storylines in the baseball world today. The most joyous: Shohei Ohtani will retake the pitching mound for the first time since August 2023. Baseball’s premier, and mostly only, two-way threat in the Majors is officially back. Elsewhere, a blue-blood and legacy franchise on the east coast, the Boston Red Sox, just traded away Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants in a move that can only be described as organizationally-minded. All that said, So far I’ve written up the Dodgers vs. Padres, Mariners vs. Red Sox, and Rays vs. Orioles games for this evening. Having said that, here are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Ryan Pepiot o5.5 strikeouts vs. Baltimore Orioles (-110)
Ryan Pepiot is well-positioned to exceed his strikeout prop tonight. With a 3.31 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 81.2 innings this season, he’s displayed excellent command, particularly in his recent starts, where he’s averaged over eight strikeouts per game. The Orioles, who rank 23rd in MLB with an 8.8 K/9 rate, are vulnerable to pitchers who can work the edges and change speeds—exactly where Pepiot excels.
He’s been particularly effective against right-handed hitters, generating an impressive 23.8% strikeout rate. His ability to generate swings outside the zone, with an average of 14% called strikes, only adds to his strikeout potential. In his last two starts, Pepiot struck out 10 batters in 12 innings, showcasing his ability to dominate hitters when he’s on.
The Orioles’ contact-heavy lineup will likely struggle against his breaking stuff and fastball command, creating the ideal conditions for him to push past his strikeout prop. With Pepiot’s solid strikeout rate and the Orioles’ high strikeout tendencies, he’s primed to exceed the 5.5 mark tonight.
Rays vs. Orioles u9.0 total runs (+100)
Not to hammer the same game too much, but I think the under in this game is an absolutely fantastic bet tonight. Both pitchers—Ryan Pepiot and Zach Eflin—have been incredibly effective recently, with both boasting solid ERA figures and strikeout rates that suggest they’ll keep the scoring low. Pepiot has posted a 3.31 ERA this season, and over his last two starts, he’s given up just five earned runs in 11.2 innings, striking out 17 batters. He thrives against right-handed hitters, who make up a majority of the Orioles’ lineup, and this has been a key factor in his ability to limit runs.
On the other side, Eflin has been just as effective for Baltimore, with a 4.08 ERA and a solid 1.09 WHIP. While his ERA is slightly higher, he’s shown control and has been able to avoid big innings in recent starts, keeping the damage to a minimum. The Orioles’ offense is also not exactly explosive, ranking 24th in runs scored per game this season, and they have struggled with consistency.
Furthermore, both teams have been trending toward the under recently, with Tampa Bay’s recent games showing a lean toward low-scoring outcomes. Given the solid pitching matchups, inconsistent offensive production, and historical trends, the under is a smart bet tonight.
Logan Gilbert u6.5 strikeouts vs. Boston Red Sox (-120)
Here’s a case of a bet that aligns perfectly with its current situation. While Gilbert has been dominant in 2025, sporting an elite 37.6% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate, there’s a critical factor to consider: he is making his first start off the injured list after missing nearly two months with a flexor strain. While he’s been lights out in previous starts, logging an incredible 2.37 ERA and 0.79 WHIP across 30.1 innings, his pitch count could be a limiting factor. After only reaching 72 pitches in his rehab assignment, he’s expected to throw around 85 pitches tonight—significantly less than his usual workload.
Additionally, Gilbert faces a Red Sox lineup that just lost its star hitter, Rafael Devers, to a trade. Without Devers, the Red Sox have struggled to generate consistent offensive production, ranking 28th in strikeouts per game. This works against swings-and-misses, though. Without the emphasis on pushing the lineup to Raffy, who can just hit bombs, this offense is more about contact than swinging for the fences. Weirdly, the lineup’s lack of power should lead to fewer strikeouts against a pitcher like Gilbert, who thrives on limiting hard contact rather than pure swing-and-miss dominance.
Taking all this into account, Gilbert’s limited pitch count, combined with a revamped Red Sox lineup that’s more likely to make small-ball contact, suggests a lean toward the under on his strikeout prop tonight.
