Let’s establish it here: Shohei Ohtani’s return to the mound is an objectively electric moment in the long-arc trajectory of baseball. After a year-plus-long hiatus due to injury, his return marks the comeback of one of the most dominant dual threats in MLB. Right now, he’s the only dual-threat player. And his fastball, while not altogether like a Paul Skenes’, per se, regularly touches 96 mph. Paired with his devastating splitter, this all should immediately elevate the Dodgers’ pitching staff. Though his pitch count will be limited to just one or two innings, his mere presence on the mound will infuse energy into the Dodgers and their fans tonight against the Padres at home. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Monday night baseball game between the Dodgers and the Padres.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dodgers vs. Padres prediction, preview
Los Angeles, sitting atop the NL West, is coming off a strong win over the Giants. Meanwhile, the Padres have struggled recently, losing several series, including a tough stretch in Arizona. But they’ll send Dylan Cease to the mound, hoping to turn things around.
Cease has been inconsistent this season, with a 2-5 record and a 4.28 ERA. While he’s got strikeout stuff—he’s fanned 96 in 75.2 innings—he’s struggled with control, walking 18 batters. His home/road splits tell the story. At home, he’s had a much more dominant season, but on the road, he’s been hit harder, with an ERA creeping near six. The Dodgers’ offense, led by Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman, is dangerous and won’t let a pitcher like Cease off easy.
On the other side, the Dodgers are turning to Ben Casperius, who has been surprisingly effective out of the bullpen. His 2.86 ERA and 1.02 WHIP have made him one of the more reliable arms in the Dodgers’ rotation this year. While Ohtani’s return to the mound is the big storyline here, he’s expected to only pitch one or two innings. It will be up to the bullpen to carry the weight, but the Dodgers’ bullpen is deep enough to cover for Ohtani’s limited outing.
Casperius has generated a 26% strikeout rate this season, and with only a 5.1% walk rate, his command is sharp. He’s given up just 36 hits in 44 innings and keeps hitters to a .227 average. His ground-ball rate of 34.7% helps him mitigate power hitters, which is key against San Diego’s sluggers.
The Padres’ offense has been hit-or-miss. Manny Machado is their offensive leader, hitting .316 with 43 RBIs, but he’s not getting the consistent support he needs. Fernando Tatis Jr. is having a solid year, but the Padres’ offense overall ranks 17th in runs scored per game (4.2). San Diego’s wOBA of .321 ranks just 15th in MLB, indicating their lack of consistent offensive production. Their lack of consistent run production makes it harder for them to keep pace with a high-powered team like the Dodgers.
Padres vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
Betting insights favor the Dodgers. They’ve won eight of their last nine home games against NL West opponents, and they’ve been the better team against San Diego at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers’ bullpen holds a 4.60 ERA over the last 10 games, but their offense has been firing on all cylinders. San Diego, meanwhile, has dropped four of their last five games against the Dodgers and struggles on the road. Their inability to string together wins has been a consistent issue, and Cease’s inconsistency won’t help tonight.
The Dodgers are more than capable of handling the Padres tonight, even with Ohtani’s limited pitch count. Given the Dodgers’ offensive strength and Cease’s struggles, taking the Dodgers on the Moneyline at -156 is the smart play. Their offense should overpower the Padres’ bullpen, and their home dominance against divisional rivals makes them the clear pick here.
And we’re just not going to bet against the team bringing back one of the best stories ever in the history of baseball. Go Dodgers.
Best bet: Dodgers (-157) vs. Padres
Dodgers take it after last night’s fireworks—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
