The NBA Finals are down to a best-of-three series with both teams picking up two wins across the opening four games. The action will return to Oklahoma City tonight following a heroic fourth quarter from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Game 4 to give the Thunder the win. Indiana held a seven-point lead heading into the fourth quarter, but it was outscored 31-17 in the final period to even up the series.
In a 2-2 series, 74% of teams that win Game 5 have gone on to win the Finals in NBA history. It will be a massive matchup tonight where we will see if the Pacers blew their best chance of taking control of the series or if this resilient squad still has another trick up their sleeve.
Looking at the Game 5 odds, the Thunder enter as nine-point favorites and -425 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pacers hold +330 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 224.5.
With plenty on the line in Game 5, here are my favorite prop bets for Thunder vs. Pacers.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 Points (-110)
Tyrese Haliburton has been a major talking point throughout this entire playoff run. He may not fit what most people picture as the headline star of a team, but the criticism of Haliburton has been too loud. Despite the talking points, Haliburton has made plenty of people eat their words in the playoffs and during this NBA Finals matchup.
Overall, the two-time All-Star averaged 18.6 points per game in the regular season and has tallied the same scoring output in the postseason. He tallied over 17.5 points in 39 of the 73 regular-season games and has cleared this total in 11 of the 20 postseason games. Oklahoma City has a strong overall defense, but Indiana has managed to play at its pace for plenty of stretches in this series. Haliburton shook off an underwhelming start in which he took just 13 field-goal attempts in each of the first two games. He has tallied over 17.5 points in back-to-back games and has been more aggressive with the ball in his hands.
Heading into Game 5, this should be viewed as a must-win. Indiana has not rolled over at any point in these playoffs and will be relying on its resilience once again. Haliburton has only attempted three total free throws in the series, all of which came in Game 4, but he has begun attacking the rim at a more regular rate. He has attempted at least seven three-pointers in all four games and is averaging 17.8 points per game in the series. Expect the Pacers’ star to be at the epicenter of the production tonight and be willing to lead the offense the way this team is designed. There is a ton on the line in Game 5, and Haliburton has not blinked at the moment to this point. Indiana has made some adjustments to make life easier for its star guard and count on him to be ready to perform tonight. I like his chances of scoring over 17.5 points for the third straight game as the Pacers attempt to take control of the series once again.
Chet Holmgren Over 9.5 Rebounds (+110)
The Thunder went back to their double-big lineup by plugging Isaiah Hartenstein back into the starting lineup in Game 4. But the prized offseason addition was still limited to just 21:14 of game action and produced just two points and six rebounds. Coach Mark Daigneault prefers to play small in this matchup with Indiana, with Chet Holmgren serving as the full-time center. Holmgren logged 37:11 of game action in the previous game and pulled in a series-high 15 rebounds.
Across the regular season, the Gonzaga product averaged 15.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. Since the playoffs started, Holmgren has averaged 15.9 points and 8.7 rebounds per game while seeing his minutes increase from 27.4 per night to 29.8 in the postseason. He is coming off back-to-back games with 34+ minutes played and has tallied 10+ rebounds in each. The 23-year-old is averaging 9.3 rebounds and 16.3 rebound chances in this series. These numbers have climbed to 12.5 rebounds and 18.5 rebound chances over the past two games.
While Oklahoma City deserves some credit for going back to what got it here and trying the double-big lineup, the results were not promising. Don’t be surprised if this is fully abandoned in Game 5 and for the Thunder to lean on Holmgren as the full-time center as often as possible. Indiana is a weak rebounding team across the board, with Myles Turner pulling in just two rebounds in back-to-back games. Count on Holmgren making the most of his expanded opportunity on the floor and recording over 8.5 rebounds for the third straight game.
Lu Dort Under 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+140)
Perhaps the biggest surprise in this series has been how impactful the Indiana Pacers’ defense has been. They have been incredibly effective at limiting three-pointers, with Oklahoma City shooting just 3-for-16 from beyond the three-point arc as a team in the previous game. This is both the fewest makes and the fewest attempts from the perimeter it has tallied in a game all season. While this is an extreme example, this has been a strength for Indiana all year. Since the All-Star break, the Pacers have ranked third in opponent three-point attempts allowed and fourth in opponent three-point percentage.
Oklahoma City has attempted just 38 total three-pointers in its last two games, making up only 24.2% of its shot volume. The Thunder are not an overly reliant three-point shooting team in general, ranking 10th in 3PA per game in the regular season and eighth out of the 16 playoff teams, and Indiana has made its choice for them.
Looking at Lu Dort directly, he has been an outlier for three-point production. So far in this series, he has shot 11-for-18 (61.1%) from the perimeter. However, his volume has been limited after shooting 5-for-9 from deep in Game 1. He was limited to 1-for-3 shooting from deep in Game 2 and just 1-for-1 in Game 4. Dort has done a nice job improving as a shooter throughout his career, but he is shooting above his head in this series. Expect some regression to the mean and for the shot opportunities to continue to be difficult to come by. I am backing him to be held to under 1.5 made three-pointers for the third time in the series and second straight game at +140 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
