The Thunder are hosting the Pacers for Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday. Currently, the series is tied at two wins apiece. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Thunder are a 9.5-point favorite for Game 5 and this contest carries a total of 223.5 points.
Below, I break down Game 5 between the Thunder and Pacers and give a pick for the game via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Thunder vs. Pacers preview, prediction
After losing Game 3 by nine points and going down 1-2 in this best-of-seven, the Thunder needed to respond in Game 4 and the club did exactly that, winning the contest by seven points to even this series 2-2. The Pacers led for the majority of that game and led by as many as 10 points, but Oklahoma City rallied late in the fourth quarter to take the lead and the club didn’t look back.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander performed like an MVP and was the main reason for the Thunder’s late comeback, scoring 12 points in the final six minutes. Overall, the guard finished with 35 points, three rebounds and three steals, but Gilgeous-Alexander oddly didn’t record one assist for the first time this season. Also, Jalen Williams was terrific with 27 points, Chet Holmgren posted a 14-point and 15-rebound double-double and last but not least, Alex Caruso provided 20 points and five steals off the bench. After dropping Game 3, the Thunder moved Isaiah Hartenstein into the starting lineup for Game 4, with Cason Wallace moving back to the bench, but Hartenstein was mostly ineffective with the starting role, finishing with just two points, six rebounds and three assists in only 21 minutes. The big man finished a team-worst -7 in the box score and Oklahoma City moving Hartenstein back to the bench for Game 5 wouldn’t be surprising.
In the tough loss for the Pacers, Pascal Siakam led the way with 20 points, eight rebounds and five assists, while Tyrese Haliburton finished with 18 points and seven assists. Obi Toppin also added 17 points off the bench, but Aaron Nesmith and Bennedict Mathurin both had quiet outings, scoring only eight points apiece. Mathurin notably missed three free throws in the final minute of this game when Indiana was attempting to fight back. While Siakam had a team-high 20 points, he went scoreless in the fourth quarter, which was obviously a huge letdown for Indiana and a big part of Oklahoma City’s late comeback. Not only do the Pacers need Siakam to be better in late-game situations going forward if the team wants to win this series, but Indiana also needs both Nesmith and Mathurin to get back on track as scorers.
The Thunder’s late rally with Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way felt like a turning point in this series. Oklahoma City’s backs were against the wall and instead of just tapping out in a hostile road environment in Indiana, the Thunder and the team’s best player rose to the occasion in the biggest moment of the season. Oklahoma City should be oozing with confidence after this clutch win and now, the club returns home, where the Thunder have been simply incredible this season with a league-best 44-8 record.
The Pacers have shocked us all postseason, but going into Oklahoma City and stealing Game 5 will be an extremely tall order for the club. Indiana will need both Haliburton and Siakam to have sensational performances and a few role players to have great showings as well, which, unfortunately for Indiana, is unlikely with the team now back on the road.
Thunder vs. Pacers pick, best bet
Following the Thunder’s impressive road win in Game 4, the team should cruise to an easy victory back at home for Game 5. As mentioned above, Oklahoma City is 44-8 at home this season and this postseason, the Thunder are 9-2 at home and lead the league in net rating by a mile.
Oklahoma City owns an absurd 26.5-point margin of victory in the team’s nine home wins this postseason and backing the Thunder at -9.5 is a no-brainer for Game 5. At home this season, Oklahoma City is a league-best 35-15-2 ATS.
