For the second time these playoffs, the Oklahoma City Thunder are on the brink. The Thunder are down 2-1 in the NBA Finals after losing the turnover battle and disappearing in the fourth quarter in Wednesday’s Game 3 against the Indiana Pacers, and tonight’s clash in Indiana is a must-win for Oklahoma City. Only one team has ever erased a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals, and unlike the Thunder, that squad rostered LeBron James.
Just as winning the Finals is huge for players’ legacies, the DFS prizes for these Finals are massive as well. Game 4’s Showdown contest featured $700,000 in prizes, with $200,000 paid out to the winner and prizes paid out to the top 6,678 contestants. Here are my favorite value plays from tonight’s contest.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $700K Finals Shootaround [$200K to 1st] (OKC @ IND).
SG/SF Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, $4,000
Indiana should stick with what worked in its Game 3 victory, and that means giving Mathurin a green light. The Canadian became the first player in Finals history to score 25 or more points in less than 23 minutes, making nine of his 12 shots and two of his three three-pointers en route to 27 points, four rebounds, and one block (36.0 FPTS). He might cool off at some point — he hit a lot of off-the-dribble pull-ups and tough contested looks during his Game 3 explosion — but the Thunder often just let him cut to the basket off the ball. His shot diet hasn’t been unhealthy — 50% of his shots these playoffs have come with the nearest defender more than four feet away — so his efficiency should be relatively sustainable as long as Rick Carlisle continues to give him free rein.
He’s even played decent defense on Jalen Williams ($10,200), holding him to eight points, three assists, and two turnovers on three-for-seven shooting in the 41.9 partial possessions that he’s guarded him for, and as long as Mathurin is holding his own on that end of the floor, there’s no reason for him not to get minutes. Neither Williams nor Alex Caruso ($6,400) has shown much of an ability to stop him on the other end, also, as he’s eight-for-nine when guarded by them. His isolation ability adds a new dynamic to a ball-movement-heavy Pacers offense that Carlisle should utilize strategically as they seek to close out the series.
Isaiah Joe, Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers, $1,600
Joe has played a total of 21 minutes this series, so you should be fully aware that there’s a decent chance that this is a suggestion to spend $1,600 on a complete DNP. However, it’s clear after watching Oklahoma City’s performance towards the end of the fourth quarter that Mark Daigneault needs to make some sort of adjustment. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($13,800) looked gassed, and Chet Holmgren ($8,200) got overmatched in the paint. Playing Isaiah Hartenstein ($4,800) as the sole big to make sure Holmgren still has power by the end of the game might make some sense — Hartenstein received his most minutes in Game 2, the Thunder’s sole win — and given his paint-bound nature, Oklahoma City would benefit from putting more shooting around him.
Of the deep Thunder bench pieces who have gotten few minutes these Finals and might compete for expanded opportunities, Joe is the best shooter, having made 40.8% of his tries in the regular season. Aaron Wiggins ($2,800), who I also considered in this spot because he’s been the Oklahoma City’s best defender against Mathurin so far these playoffs, made just 38.0% of his threes in the regular season. Joe got extended run in the first round and shot 42.1% from deep, and he’s made three of his five tries so far these Finals. He scored 11 points (13.75 FPTS) in garbage time of Game 5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves and played decent defense against Christian Braun and Russell Westbrook in the conference semifinals. I don’t understand why Daigneault hasn’t given him more of a look.
