The Indiana Pacers have taken a 2-1 series lead in the NBA Finals and are continuing their path to becoming one of the most improbable champions in recent history. Tonight’s matchup will be the second game in Indiana as the Thunder attempt to even the series before heading back to Oklahoma City.
Despite the Thunder entering the series as monstrous -700 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, it is impossible not to take Indiana seriously. There was nothing fluky about their Game 3 win, as they limited the Thunder to 107 points, held Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to 24 points, and forced 19 turnovers in the matchup. Oddsmakers have continued to back the Thunder significantly, with Oklahoma City still holding -220 odds of winning the series on DraftKings Sportsbook, even while trailing the series 2-1.
Heading into Game 4, the Thunder enter as six-point favorites and are -218 on the moneyline. The Pacers hold +180 odds of pulling off the upset with the game total set at 227. This ties the largest home underdog mark in the past 25 years of NBA history when, in Game 5 of the 2000 NBA Finals, Reggie Miller’s Pacers were six-point underdogs against the Lakers. For what it is worth, Indiana blew out Los Angeles 120-87 in that matchup.
With plenty on the line in Game 4, here are my favorite prop bets for Thunder vs. Pacers.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 46.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-115)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP of the league, but has not quite looked like it to start this series. Across the opening three games, he is averaging 32.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game. He has been held to under 46.5 combined points, rebounds and assists in two of the three games, and his impact has not been as large as the numbers suggest. Indiana had their most successful effort against the Thunder star in Game 3, limiting him to 24 points, eight rebounds and four assists, or 36 combined PRA.
Across the playoffs, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.1 points, 6.6 assists and 5.7 rebounds, or 42.4 PRA. He averaged fewer points, rebounds and assists on the road across the regular season at 42.9 combined PRA despite logging more minutes. The reigning scoring champion has been held below this number in six of the eight road games in the postseason and 13 of the 19 playoff games overall. He is still shooting 47.9% from the field and 38.5% from beyond the three-point arc on solid volume, but Indiana has made life difficult. They showed an increased willingness to blitz and throw multiple defenders in Gilgeous-Alexander’s direction in Game 3. In addition, the Pacers put him in as many defensive actions as possible, which took a toll on his energy level as the game progressed. He was considered the closest defender on 23 of the Pacers’ shot attempts, which is the highest mark he has logged all season.
The Thunder will need Gilgeous-Alexander to step up, and he will surely still have his flashes in the matchup. But 46.5 combined points, rebounds and assists is a high bar to clear and one that he has fallen short of all too often. Indiana ratcheted up their defensive effort in Game 3, with Gilgeous-Alexander feeling the effects of this. Expect him to be involved throughout the matchup, but fall short of this high statistical bar for the third time in this series and 14th time across these playoffs.
Obi Toppin Over 14.5 Points & Rebounds (-105)
The Indiana Pacers have a deep bench with plenty of players who can step up as an X-factor on any given night. Bennedict Mathurin exploded for 27 points in Game 3, while T.J. McConnell made his impact felt with several effort plays that changed the momentum. Obi Toppin also fits this criteria and he has had a nice series thus far. He exploded for 17 points on five made three-pointers in Game 1 and is averaging 9.3 points and 5.3 rebounds across the opening three games.
During the regular season, Toppin averaged 10.5 points and 4.0 rebounds in his 19.6 minutes per night. He has played 25+ minutes in two of the three games in this series and is coming off a playoff career-high 27:48 of game action on Wednesday. He finished a game-high +18 in the victory. Oklahoma City is loaded with size and athleticism, which has made Toppin more valuable to this Pacers team from a matchup perspective. Both these teams like to play an up-tempo style. The Thunder ranked fourth in the league in scoring in the regular season with 120.5 points per game, while the Pacers checked in at seventh with 117.4 points per contest. These teams rank second and third in scoring in the postseason at 116.4 and 116.5 points per game, respectively. They also both ranked in the top seven in pace in the regular season and check in at second and third in this metric across all 16 playoff teams.
All these factors play toward Toppin’s strength and expect his level of opportunity to remain expanded. He has attempted field goal outputs of nine, eight, and eight in these three playoff games and pulled in 16 total rebounds. As long as this level of opportunity continues, I am backing the stats to follow. Toppin is a good enough shooter to punish the Thunder when he is left wide open and is a terror every time he gets out in transition. Expect him to have an impact as a scorer and on the glass.
Andrew Nembhard Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+150)
There have been plenty of talking points surrounding Tyrese Haliburton, but this should not overshadow the impact that Andrew Nembhard has made during this playoff run. Quickly earning the “playoff riser” label, Nembhard has increased his scoring outputs and efficiency splits in back-to-back playoff runs for this Pacers team. His ability to serve as a primary ball-handler and his capabilities of taking opponents off the dribble are necessary to complement Haliburton and have allowed Indiana to utilize their star in an off-ball role more frequently.
After a regular season in which the Gonzaga product averaged 10.0 points per game while shooting 45.8% from the floor and a career-worst 29.1% on three-point attempts, Nembard is dropping 12.5 points per game in the playoffs while shooting 47.1% from the floor and 45.8% from three. He has made at least one three-pointer in all three games during this series and recorded over 1.5 three-pointers in 10 of 19 postseason games. Nembhard shot 2-for-6 on three-point attempts in Game 1 before being limited to 1-for-4 and 1-for-2 perimeter shooting outputs in the previous two games.
Heading into Game 4, expect the Pacers to do a better job of creating shot opportunities for the scrappy guard. He shot just five times in Game 3, which marks the fewest of his playoff career and nearly half of what he is averaging in these playoffs. Haliburton, Mathurin and Pascal Siakam stepped to the center stage of the offense and had the Thunder defense rattled in a way that has not been seen all season. Expect Oklahoma City to have some adjustments prepared and for Nembhard to be eagerly waiting to scale up his offensive role as a counter. While he is plenty capable as a shooter off the catch, as well, the Canadian standout can generate his own three-point looks off the dribble in a way that is necessary for this Pacers team. Getting +150 odds for this prop is great value for something that he has hit in more than half of the playoff games thus far.
