Atlanta, Georgia, will host a UFC event for the first time since 2019, and former Welterweight Champion No. 5 Kamaru Usman will headline the card against No. 7 Joaquin Buckley.
The Prelims start at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the Main Card beginning at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN. Here are my three best bets for UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley.
Kamaru Usman Moneyline (+230)
Usman is a better all-around fighter than Buckley, averaging nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes. Also, on the feet, Usman is much more accurate than Buckey, landing 4.36 significant strikes at a 52 percent rate.
His age has been a question mark, as fighters who get past 35 won’t likely be the same. Buckley has been on a great run recently, but isn’t as talented or accomplished as Usman’s previous opponents.
One year ago, if I had told you that you could get Usman at +230 against Buckley, it would have seemed unbelievable. Usman seems humble and hungry to get back in the win column and re-enter the title picture at 170 pounds. In this fight, Usman needs to mix in takedowns while landing a higher output against Buckley.
Cody Garbrandt Moneyline (+164)
Garbrandt is the first of three former champions to fight on this card. Although he is only 33, he seems a lot older since he’s been in the UFC since 2015 and won the title in 2016 at 25.
Most recently, we saw Garbrandt get submitted by Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 300 in April 2024. He was dealing with vertigo in that fight, which has sidelined him for the last 14 months. Before that, he won two straight fights against Brian Kelleher and Trevin Jones.
After facing a fellow former champion, Garbandt will take on a lesser-known fighter on Saturday in Raoni Barcelos. Barcelos, 38, is on a two-fight win streak while being the first fighter to defeat top prospect Payton Talbott in his last bout.
Even though Garbrandt is years removed from being a champion, he is still a big-time fighter. Garbrandt possesses legit power and must be the first to initiate offense against Barcelos. Getting the former champion at +180 on DraftKings Sportsbook is excellent value considering his upside.
Michael Chiesa To Win By Submission (+200)
In 2024, Michael Chiesa showed that although he is 37 years old, his career is not yet done. He went 2-0 with two submissions last year and had his first submission since 2018. Since Chiesa has exited the 170-pound top 15, he has found more success.
Chiesa has 12 submissions in his MMA career, with seven coming in the UFC. Even though he hasn’t had three straight submissions since 2013, let’s look at why he has a chance to do so against Court McGee. His opponent, McGee, is 40, and although he is coming off a submission of his own against Tim Means, he has lost three of his last four bouts.
Chiesa has better takedown accuracy (48% vs. 25%) and averages more takedowns per 15 minutes (3.30 vs. 1.87). In this fight, Chiesa will need to be aggressive, as he has been in his last two fights, to get a hold of McGee, who is skilled in his own right on the mat. McGee is 4-8 in his previous 12 fights and isn’t trending in the right direction.
