Summer for the kids is here! Roman Anthony reigns in Fenway. And you bet his impact has me shifting predictions and picks for today’s MLB Best Bets column. Erstwhile, I’d been hitting some more previews and predictions for tonight’s slate of games. So far I’ve written up the Padres vs. Dodgers, Red Sox vs. Rays, and Diamondbacks vs. Mariners games for this evening. Having said that, here are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Diamondbacks (-105) vs. Mariners
I’m locking in Arizona for the win. The Diamondbacks have the edge, particularly with the pitching matchup. Eduardo Rodriguez may be struggling with a 6.70 ERA, but his advanced metrics show potential for positive regression. He’s been plagued by a .367 BABIP and a low strand rate, meaning he’s had some bad luck. That could change against a Mariners offense that’s been inconsistent lately.
On the other hand, Bryan Woo has been solid for Seattle with a 3.07 ERA, but he’s also coming off a rough patch. In his last two starts, he’s allowed seven runs over 12.2 innings. The Mariners’ lineup has been quiet, ranking 20th in batting average and 24th in strikeouts per game. Arizona’s offense ranks 4th in runs per game and 3rd in home runs. Their ability to capitalize on pitching mistakes should be a problem for Woo.
The Diamondbacks are 6-3 against the spread in their last nine, and their offense is capable of going off, especially at home. Their slugging percentage is in the top 5 in the league, and with Woo allowing over 1.3 home runs per nine innings, they’ll make him pay for mistakes. Arizona’s recent form gives them momentum, and they have a solid chance to take this one at home.
Red Sox vs. Rays u9.5 total runs (-105)
The pitching matchup sets the stage for a lower-scoring affair. Zack Littell, with a solid 3.68 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, has been effective this season. His ability to limit base runners and control the game is evident in his 1.2 BB/9 and a low walk rate. He’s surrendered 17 home runs, but with Boston’s inconsistent offense, especially against control pitchers like Littell, the Rays will likely keep this game in check.
On the other side, Walker Buehler has struggled with a 5.18 ERA but possesses a 3.94 FIP that suggests some improvement could be on the horizon. Buehler has allowed 53 hits and 17 walks in just 48.2 innings this season, which could lead to some traffic on the bases. However, Boston’s bullpen has been resilient, ranking as the 5th-best in MLB, providing support for Buehler if needed. With their tendency to allow fewer than five runs in recent games, they should keep the Rays’ offense in check.
Tampa Bay has been a bit quiet at the plate lately, averaging only 4.5 runs per game, while the Red Sox, despite their high run-scoring potential, have been inconsistent against pitchers with Littell’s command. The total has gone under in four of Tampa’s last six games, and with both starters focusing on control, runs will be hard to come by. Expect a tight, pitching-focused game, with the total likely staying under runs.
Padres vs. Dodgers o9.5 total runs (-115)
Justin Wrobleski (1-2, 7.20 ERA) has shown clear signs of vulnerability, especially on the road. In his 11 innings away from home, he has allowed 12 earned runs and 3 home runs. His 1.40 WHIP speaks to his struggles with control, as he’s given up 21 baserunners in just 15 innings this season. Right-handed batters are hitting him to the tune of a .324 batting average with a .432 slugging percentage. This spells danger for a Padres offense that, despite struggles, still boasts power with Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., both capable of exploiting his weaknesses.
Randy Vásquez (3-4, 3.69 ERA) is another pitcher who has shown some inconsistencies. While he boasts a solid ERA, his 1.45 WHIP and 4.8 BB/9 show that he’s prone to allowing free passes. He’s been more effective at home, but his 5.34 FIP this season and 13.5% HR/FB rate suggest that he might be due for some regression. The Dodgers, led by Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy, have the ability to punish pitchers who allow traffic on the basepaths. Against a pitcher who struggles with command, they will be aggressive.
Both bullpens are also factors in this game. The Dodgers’ bullpen has an elevated 4.24 xFIP over the last two weeks, which indicates they’ve been prone to giving up runs. Meanwhile, the Padres’ bullpen has a 4.09 ERA, which is serviceable, but their tendency to allow runs in high-leverage situations could contribute to runs as the game wears on.
