The Rays (36-31) visit Fenway Park to face the Red Sox (33-36) in the rubber match of their three-game series. This game features two teams in opposite forms—Tampa Bay coming off a 3-1 loss, but riding a solid stretch overall, while Boston is gaining momentum after Tuesday’s win. Both squads are battling to gain ground in the AL East, but tonight’s pitching matchup could tilt the balance in favor of one side. The potential x-factor? Well. You know his name by now: Roman Anthony. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Red Sox and the Rays.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Red Sox vs. Rays prediction, preview
Zack Littell (6-5, 3.68 ERA) starts for the Rays. His advanced metrics highlight a solid season—1.09 WHIP and a low walk rate (1.2 BB/9). However, Littell’s home run rate (17 homers allowed) is a concern, especially at Fenway. He’s been steady against Boston, boasting a 2.45 ERA over 25 2/3 career innings, but his susceptibility to the long ball is something to monitor.
Walker Buehler (4-4, 5.18 ERA) counters for the Red Sox. His peripherals suggest he’s been more fortunate than good this season. With a 1.44 WHIP and a 4.12 xFIP, Buehler has struggled with hard contact (allowed 53 hits and 17 walks in 48 2/3 innings). His control issues are concerning, especially against a Rays lineup that has managed to manufacture runs despite limited power.
Tampa’s offense has been steady but inconsistent, ranking 14th in MLB with a .245 team batting average. Junior Caminero (15 HR, 41 RBIs) and Yandy Díaz (13 doubles, 9 HRs) are two key players to watch. Both have the ability to exploit Buehler’s command issues.
Boston, on the other hand, leans heavily on Rafael Devers, who leads the team with 14 home runs and 57 RBIs. Jarren Duran, fresh off an eight-game hitting streak, has been a sparkplug, hitting .311 at home. However, Buehler’s struggles are a concern—his 5.18 ERA and 1.44 WHIP are glaring signs of vulnerability, especially in a hitter-friendly park like Fenway.
The key factor here is the impact of number-one prospect Roman Anthony, recently called up and already making waves. In his first two games, Anthony showcased a keen eye at the plate and impressive bat-to-ball skills, with his first major-league hit going opposite field for a two-run double. Fitting that his first hit made contact with the Green Monster, no? Expect him to add an extra dimension to the lineup, making Boston’s attack more dangerous.
Rays vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
Tampa Bay has covered the run line in 10 straight games after a road loss against AL East opponents. On the flip side, Boston has failed to cover in 10 of their last 11 home games as favorites against division rivals. This trend reinforces Tampa’s advantage, especially with Littell’s steady presence on the mound and a rested bullpen.
The total is set at 9.5. Given Littell’s control and Tampa’s ability to limit hard contact, I’m leaning toward the Under. The Red Sox’s offense has been streaky, and Buehler’s control issues may not be enough to push this game over.
Ultimately, Tampa’s pitching depth and recent form give them the edge. Buehler’s struggles and Boston’s bullpen fatigue point to a Rays victory as slight dogs.
Best bet: Rays (-105) at Red Sox
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