The NBA Finals continue Sunday with Game 2 in Oklahoma City.
Let’s explore how the public is betting Game 2 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Splits
After shocking the world with a 111-110 upset over the Thunder in Game 1, the Pacers are seeing most of the action on the moneyline for Game 2, with 53% of the handle and 52% of the bets on Indiana +400. Naturally, with the much longer and more appealing odds than the Thunder, the Pacers seeing more bets on the moneyline makes sense, but for the club to see most of the handle as well is somewhat surprising. At home, Oklahoma City is a league-best 43-8 this season and 8-2 this postseason. The Thunder also lead the NBA with a 17-2 record following a loss.
Things are a little different for spread bets for Game 2, as 53% of the handle and 28% of the bets are on the Thunder -11, while 47% of the handle and 72% of the bets are on the Pacers +11. Most of the bets being on the Pacers +11 isn’t a surprise, as most of the public likely believes +11 is too long of a line for this inspiring Indiana team. However, 53% of the handle being on the Thunder -11 shows us that most sharp bettors believe Oklahoma City will bounce back in a big way. Not only are the Thunder 8-2 at home this season with the highest net rating by a mile, the team’s average margin of victory in those wins is a ridiculous 27.8 PPG. The Thunder have won seven of these eight games by at least 15 points. That being said, Oklahoma City is only 10-8-1 ATS after a loss. However, Indiana has been even worse ATS after a win with a 26-35-1 record. Something has to give in this situation and with the Thunder at home, tailing the sharp money and backing Oklahoma City at -11 is the right call.
For the total, most of the action is on the over, which has been the common theme for the playoffs this season. For Game 2, 72% of the handle and 62% of the bets are for over 228.5 points. Game 1 only produced 221 points, but the two regular-season matchups between the Thunder and the Pacers generated at least 234 points. Coming off a loss this season, Oklahoma City games are 13-5-1 for the over, which is a league-best record for this situation. The Thunder and Pacers are both top-six teams in offensive rating this season and 228.5 points does feel too low for these two teams going head-to-head. Following the crowd and backing the over here is a smart move.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top-five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 1st Points Scorer (+400)
- Pascal Siakam 1st Points Scorer (+700)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points (-275)
- Tyrese Haliburton 1st Points Scorer (+1000)
- Tyrese Haliburton 18+ Points (+115)
Three of the top-five most-bet player props for Game 2 are first point scorer props, with Gilgeous-Alexander at +400 as the most popular, followed by Siakam at +700 and then Haliburton at +1000. Haliburton ranks fourth for the Pacers in made first baskets this season, and while the point guard is a long shot for this wager, Gilgeous-Alexander and Siakam are much more appealing options to be the first point scorer in Game 2. Both Gilgeous-Alexander and Siakam lead their teams in made first baskets this season, with 14 and nine, respectively. This season, Gilgeous-Alexander has been the first point scorer in 15.1% of his games, while Siakam has accomplished this feat in 9.6% of his starts. The Thunder win tip-off in 48.5% of their games this season, compared to the Pacers at just 30.3%. Given this factor, Gilgeous-Alexander is without question the best bet to be the first point scorer in Game 2 and quite frankly, his odds should have been shorter than +400.
Continuing with Gilgeous-Alexander, the guard for 30+ points at a heavily favored -275 price is the third-most-bet player prop for Game 2. The guard is the NBA’s top scorer this season with 32.1 PPG and after torching the Pacers for 38 points in Game 1, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 30+ points in 12 of his 17 starts during these playoffs. Furthermore, the MVP has scored at least 33 points in all three of his matchups with the Pacers this season. While the -275 odds for this prop aren’t great, Gilgeous-Alexander for 30+ points is a very safe wager to consider for Game 2.
Lastly, Haliburton for 18+ points at +115 is the fifth-most-bet player prop for Game 2. While Haliburton was the hero for Indiana in Game 1 with the go-ahead basket in the final seconds, the guard only scored 14 points with a 17.1% usage rate in the victory. The Thunder lead the NBA in defensive rating by a solid margin and in his three matchups with Oklahoma City this season, Haliburton has only scored four, 18 and 14 points, in that order. The Thunder are giving up the second-fewest points to point guards this season and attacking Haliburton for 18+ points in this brutal road matchup simply isn’t wise.
