Let’s face it, the John Tavares era of Toronto Maple Leafs hockey hasn’t exactly gone as planned. The Maple Leafs signed Tavares to a seven-year, $77 million deal back in 2018 with then-GM Kyle Dubas. Tavares came over after nine seasons with the New York Islanders, returning home to Canada to be captain of the Maple Leafs. At the time, it was a dream come true for Tavares, who was born in Mississisauga, Ontario.
Fast-forward to 2024 and Tavares has one year remaining on that contract worth an average annual value of $11 million. He’s 33 years old and will turn 34 before the 2024-25 season. Tavares’ best days are behind him, coming off 65 points in 80 games this past season. That isn’t to say Tavares can’t continue to be a productive and effective center. But at this age and those numbers, he’s not an $11 million player anymore. And really rarely lived up to that billing while in Toronto.
In terms of regular-season production, Tavares was around a point-per-game player. Over six seasons with the Maple Leafs, Tavares has 419 points (184 goals) in 440 games. Over his career with the Isles, Tavares had 621 points (272 goals) in 669 games. The middle of Tavares’ tenure with Toronto was mired by the COVID-19 Pandemic. But still, regular-season numbers are fine. It’s the playoffs where Tavares didn’t perform at a high level.
Tavares has 12 goals and 24 points in 38 playoff games for the Leafs. In the seven-game series loss to the Bruins in the first round this season, Tavares finished with two points in seven games. With William Nylander and Auston Matthews missing games during the series, Tavares didn’t step up. The Leafs were ousted again in the playoffs after having high-ish expectations. Sheldon Keefe was fired as head coach. Big changes should be on the horizon.
Which brings us to one of those potential changes in the form of trading captain Tavares. It makes sense for the Leafs to get something out of Tavares before he hits the open market again. Trading Tavares also expedites the inevitable of Matthews being named the next captain. You also get a head-start on shedding some salary in order to retain pending UFA and players that hit the market. Mitch Marner will need a new deal after 2024-25. Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi and TJ Brodie are all UFA in July. The Leafs will also need to sign some upcoming RFA in Matthew Knies, Nicolas Robertson and Timothy Liljegren.
Moving Tavares may be tricky. First, he’d have to waive his no movement clause. This may not happen and would make this entire article a moot point. But let’s entertain the idea that Tavares is fine with it and would be willing to get dealt to a contending team. Second, the Leafs are likely going to need to retain some salary on Tavares’ deal. That could mean taking on $4-5 million of the $11 million in 2024-25. Which is fine if you’re Toronto, it gives you an extra $6-7 million in cap space for next season to mess around with. Plus, Tavares is still a very good player and would bring back a solid asset(s) in a deal.
If there’s one team who can make such a deal it’s the New Jersey Devils. We’ve already seen some speculation around another Canadian NHL teams captain in Brady Tkachuk of the Ottawa Senators. That has more clear connections to the Devils since Tkachuk and GM Tom Fitzgerald are cousins. But it’s clear the Devils need to bring in more veteran leadership and also need a center. You could point to the Devils having Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes down the middle. Hughes isn’t really a true center and should project more as a RW. If that’s the case, the Devils could bring in Tavares to add a A-B situation at captain with Hischier.
So what would the deal look like? One of the Devils’ young forwards — Dawson Mercer or Alexander Holtz — would likely be the centerpiece of this deal. New Jersey could also dangle a lesser defenseman prospect in Santeri Hatakka or Daniil Misyul. Giving up Simon Nemec or Seamus Casey for a potential 34-year-old rental doesn’t feel like a strong move. But the Devils do have an excess of defensive prospects and depth there. You’d rather see Nemec or Casey shipped out in a deal for a starting goaltender or a Tkachuk-type forward. Not for Tavares.
Holtz fell out of a favor but could still end up being a solid middle-six forward. Mercer regressed in 2023-24 but that could have more to do with Lindy Ruff and the team overall. The Devils also need to give Mercer a new deal. Maybe Fitz doesn’t want to commit to Mercer long-term just yet and would be willing to find a new home for the forward. Mercer also doesn’t project as a center anymore. He’s more of a wing who has similar qualities to the other forwards on New Jersey. The Devils could also give up a lesser prospect and a future second-round pick for Tavares. This could also depend on how much salary Toronto is willing to take on for next season.
Okay, so the deal is worked out. Where does Tavares fit in the Devils’ forward group. First, he brings stability to the locker room, at least you’d think. He’s getting toward the end of his career and likely just wants to win a Cup before hanging them up. The Devils give him that shot assuming the team rebounds in 2024-25. Also remember, Tavares is familiar with the tri-state area. He was on Long Island but New Jersey isn’t far. Those ties to New York could make waiving the NMC a little easier. Tavares is also familiar with the division and teams having played there for nine seasons. There’s also the kicker if Keefe is hired by N.J. as head coach. Tavares and Keefe must have some type of working relationship built in.
Tavares would slot in as the second-line center, assuming Hughes is moved to RW full time. Jack is awful on draws; he’s 35.7 percent for his NHL career and has seen well over 2,000 faceoffs in the past five seasons. Maybe one day down the road Hughes shifts back to center. But he’s more of a wing in the mold of Patrick Kane. So here’s what the Devils’ lines could look like (depending on what they give up):
Ondrej Palat — Nico Hischier — Jesper Bratt
Timo Meier — John Tavares — Jack Hughes
The third line would feature Erik Haula and either Holtz or Mercer or potentially both if you can hold onto them and still add Tavares. Palat is more of a third-liner right now but is also getting paid $6 million per season. The Devils could give Holtz a shot up in the top-6 at LW if he’s kept going into 2024-25. But that second line would be very solid. Meier and Tavares do the dirty work for Jack. Hughes and Tavares can set up Meier to score. Tavares has plenty of experience playing with talented wings like Nylander and Marner. You could also swap those lines and go with Meier — Hischier — Hughes up top. Palat — Tavares — Bratt would be a very difficult line to play against (assuming they’re all healthy).
Tavares is one of the best players in the dot in the NHL. He ranked second in faceoff win percentage among players with at least 750 draws in 2023-24. Michael McLeod likely won’t be playing for the Devils or in the NHL moving forward. So New Jersey needs a center who is good in the dot and can help gain possession and win battles more frequently. Also in that group mentioned above is Hischier, who ranked ninth in FOW% among qualified centers. Between Hischier, Tavares and Haula, you’d have three top FO centers and could add another on the fourth line.
This move may not be the sexy move like adding a Tkachuk or Chandler Stephenson via free agency. But it could be a low-cost, high-reward move if Toronto wants to go in that direction. If things don’t work out, Tavares is a rental and you proceed from there. If it works out, Tavares could be convinced to re-sign with the team on a short-term deal that makes sense. Either way, the Devils need to bring in more leadership and players committed to playing a certain way. Tavares could be that guy and for him, it would be a shot at proving a lot of critics wrong.
