We’ve got more Commissioner’s Cup action on deck tonight. This time, it’s the Phoenix Mercury facing off with the Seattle Storm.
The early part of the season has been a test for Seattle. Adjusting to life without Jewell Loyd has been tough for the offense. Retooling the offense around just Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith, who are already on the older side and have high usage, is tough for head coach Noelle Quinn. The increase in efficiency from Gabby Williams has helped, and Erica Wheeler has been a substantial addition. Still, Seattle’s offense will need to tick up to get where they want to go.
Phoenix needs to get healthy. It’s frustrating enough that Kahleah Copper has missed the entire season to date; now Alyssa Thomas’ calf is keeping her sidelined. With her history of Achilles injuries, the Mercury will be cautious with their new star. Still, they hold firm with the second-best record in the Western Conference. The strength of their defense, depth, and the power of Satou Sabally have seen them through.
The Storm are 5.5-point favorites on the road and are -238 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 155.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Prediction for Storm vs. Mercury
We’re in for a defensive battle here. Phoenix has one of the best defenses in the early going. Though AT is a significant loss, they have the personnel to hang tough without her. This Seattle squad is built to defend as well. Nneka and Gabby Williams are stellar in their own right, and Ezi Magbegor is a perennial All-Defense selection. There’s a reason why the total is so low.
Both teams will thrive in a contest where buckets are at a premium. The Storm will attempt to press multiple buttons to work out this Phoenix defense. On the other end, Seattle has a lot of bodies to throw at Satou Sabally in an attempt to slow her breakout. In this grind-it-out contest, things will be a lot closer than the line indicates.
Pick for Storm vs. Mercury
Phoenix Mercury Moneyline +205
Yes, Phoenix is getting ravaged by injury. But their only losses without Alyssa Thomas have come against the undefeated Minnesota Lynx. That’s completely understandable in my book. Seattle has a lot of experience and talent, but they’re vulnerable while the offense struggles to this degree. I’m taking the home underdogs in this one.
Under 155.5 (-110)
On one side, we have a top-tier defense in Phoenix against a Seattle offense struggling to score. Conversely, we have a Mercury offense missing two of their projected top three scorers against a Storm defense one tier below the Mercury’s. This all adds up to an under in my book. A low-scoring Phoenix victory is in the cards.
