Merab Dvalishvili puts his UFC Bantamweight title on the line at UFC 316 in a rematch with former champion Sean O’Malley. Since their last fight in September 2024, Dvalishvili successfully defended his title while O’Malley was rehabbing an injury. Will things change in the second chapter of this rivalry, or will the era of “The Machine” continue?
Here is my pick for the Main Event of UFC 316.
Sean O’Malley Moneyline (+235)
First, it is surprising that O’Malley is a +235 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook after his first decision loss of his MMA career. Dvalishvili has won 12 straight fights and is an elite champion, one of the best in division history.
But even though he won their first matchup, that doesn’t take away from what O’Malley has achieved. He has defeated two former champions and has the largest strike differential (+3.31), highest significant strike accuracy (61.5%), and most post-fight bonuses (9) in UFC bantamweight history.
O’Malley stuffed nine of Dvalishvili’s 15 takedown attempts but will have to do an even better job to become a two-time champion. Six of his last eight wins have come by knockout, because his power is surreal. When he lands, it most often strongly affects opponents. One of the problems in his first fight against Dvalishvili was his volume. O’Malley finished 47/89 in significant strikes, which isn’t good enough against someone as talented as Dvalishvili.
Recently, O’Malley said he has had a great training camp and was able to wrestle a lot more than he did for their first fight. That is good news, because although Dvalishvili has a 35 percent takedown rate, he averages 5.89 per 15 minutes with his relentless attacks.
It will be a tough ask, but it would favor him if O’Malley could hold Dvalishvili to fewer takedowns. Dvalishvili has grown as a striker, but is still not on O’Malley’s level. O’Malley is the best striker in the 135-pound division and one of the greatest of all time. The former champion averages 2.34 more significant strikes per minute than Dvalishvili. Also, O’Malley lands his strikes at an incredible 61 percent rate.
Beating O’Malley once is one thing, but limiting his power in two straight fights is unlikely. If O’Malley dictates the pace of the fight and gets Dvalishvili off his game plan, he should have a great shot to win this contest. As good as Dvalishvili is, his arsenal becomes limited if he is not controlling the contest on the ground.
