Tonight, UFC Bantamweight Champion Merab Dvalishvili defends his title against former title holder Sean O’Malley. Kayla Harrison faces Julianna Pena in the co-main event for the women’s 135-pound title.
The Prelims start at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the Main Card beginning at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV. Here are my three best bets for UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2.
Sean O’Malley Moneyline (+245)
O’Malley averages 2.34 more significant strikes per minute than Dvalishvili. Also, on the feet, the former champion has a 61 percent striking accuracy, 19 percent better than Dvalishvili’s. It will be tough for Dvalishvili to defend O’Malley’s elite striking arsenal in two straight fights.
If O’Malley controls the pace of the bout and forces Dvalishvili to stand and strike with him, he should have a great shot at winning this contest. Dvalishvili is a great champion, but if O’Malley connects with his big power punches, it likely will be too much for even “The Machine” to handle.
Kayla Harrison to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-175)
Harrison enters UFC 316 with an 18-1 record and 13 finishes. She has had a finish in seven of her previous 10 wins. Although Pena is a formidable opponent for Harrison, three of her five defeats were by submission or knockout.
With Harrison being a huge -625 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, the better play is to get her to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission, which is -175. Pena has had six submission wins in her career, but isn’t efficient in defending opponents’ takedowns.
Harrison has had two takedowns in each of her first two UFC fights. With Harrison displaying an elite striking skillset, it is unlikely Pena will be able to last throughout five rounds.
Joe Pyfer to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+120)
At 28, Pyfer is one of the best rising prospects in the middleweight division. He is 4-1 in the UFC with four finishes. After losing to Jack Hermansson in February 2024, he bounced back with a big knockout over Marc-Andre Barriault.
Now, Pyfer is a -280 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook against veteran Kelvin Gastelum. Even though Gastelum has won two of his previous three fights, he hasn’t faced someone recently with power like Pyfer. With Pyfer’s big reach (75″ vs. 71″) and height (6’2″ vs. 5’9″) advantages, it would be surprising if he couldn’t finish Gastelum with his high-pressure offense.
