The Chicago Cubs (38-22) have been on a dominant run, claiming eight of their last 10 games, including a series-opening 8-3 victory over the Washington Nationals (28-32). With momentum firmly on their side, they’ll look to extend their advantage in this second game of the series against a Nationals team with a rough 5.03 ERA. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Nationals and the Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Nationals vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Chicago’s offense is firing on all cylinders, averaging 5.7 runs per game—ranking second in the MLB. The team’s .443 slugging percentage and .260 batting average are just the beginning. They’re also second in the MLB with a 124 wRC+, showcasing their elite offensive production. And we can’t ignore our new lord and savior Pete Crow-Armstrong, who’s been a dynamo, already at 15 home runs and 51 RBIs. His .552 slugging percentage is a key part of this Cubs offense that’s top-10 in both extra-base hits (211) and isolated power (.183). Seiya Suzuki and Nico Hoerner provide a consistent attack, and the Cubs are built to take advantage of Irvin’s pitching style.
On the pitching side, Drew Pomeranz is living up to his billing as one of the most effective relievers in the game. His 0.51 WHIP this season ranks third in the MLB, and his 15 strikeouts to three walks ratio comes from some pristine command. While Pomeranz will only give the Cubs 1-2 innings, his 15.3 K/9 is top-tier, and his expected FIP of 1.63 suggests his dominance is sustainable. The Cubs’ bullpen, ranked 6th in MLB with a 3.32 ERA, will take over from there. Their collective 9.3 K/9 is among the league’s elite, and they’ve proven they can handle the workload when necessary.
Jake Irvin, for Washington, has been steady, but let’s dig into the numbers. His 3.93 ERA is solid, but his 1.17 WHIP shows he’s allowing too many baserunners, and his eight home runs allowed highlight his vulnerability. Irvin’s expected ERA (xERA) is 4.42, suggesting a bit of underperformance in his current 5-1 record. In his last start, he was hit hard by the Diamondbacks, allowing six earned runs on 10 hits. His xFIP of 4.57 indicates he’s been fortunate in some of his starts this season, and against a power-hitting team like the Cubs, those cracks in his performance are going to show.
Cubs vs. Nationals pick, best bet
When you shift to the trends, the Cubs’ offense has been on fire. They lead the majors with a 34.2% line drive rate, which indicates they consistently hit the ball with authority. Despite the shutout last night, their 7-3 record over their last 10 games shows this team is poised to bounce back in a big way. In fact, their .333 on-base percentage in the past 10 games ranks fifth in MLB, proving their ability to get on base and turn opportunities into runs.
Meanwhile, Washington has some key trends that don’t work in their favor. Despite a solid 5-2 record in their last seven games, their offense ranks 24th in strikeouts per game (8.5) and struggles against power pitchers, with a .394 slugging percentage ranking 17th in MLB. This shows that even though they’ve had some success, their offensive inconsistency will hurt them against a deeper team like Chicago. The Nationals’ bullpen doesn’t help either, with a 4.99 ERA ranking them 26th in MLB. That’s a glaring issue, especially in a game where they’ll likely need to hold off a Cubs lineup that can explode at any moment.
The matchup here gives the Cubs the edge in nearly every category. Chicago’s sixth-ranked bullpen and power-hitting offense simply outclass Washington’s, and when we factor in Irvin’s struggles against Chicago’s bats, it’s hard to see the Nationals keeping up. While Irvin may offer some resistance early, the Cubs’ superior depth, both offensively and on the mound, will wear Washington down.
This Cubs team doesn’t lose two in a row too often.
Best bet: Cubs (-140) at Nationals
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