After a wild 7-6 win in the Subway Series opener last night, the New York Yankees now look for a big sweep of the crosstown rival New York Mets in the final game of this two-game set on Wednesday. First pitch from Citi Field in Queens is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. The Yankees give the ball to ace Gerrit Cole (7-1, 2.84 ERA), while the Mets will turn to Cole’s old Houston Astros teammate, Justin Verlander (2-3, 4.85).
This one is nearly a pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets checking in as narrow -115 favorites and the Yankees at -105. The run total is set at 7.5.
Yankees-Mets picks: Wednesday, June 14
Injury report
Yankees
Out: OF Aaron Judge (toe), OF Harrison Bader (hamstring), RP Ian Hamilton (groin), OF Greg Allen (hip), SP Carlos Rodon (back)
Mets
Out: 1B Pete Alonso (wrist), RP Edwin Uceta (knee), SP Jose Quintana (ribs)
Starting pitchers
Gerrit Cole vs. Justin Verlander
It’s been over a month now since Cole looked like his truly dominant self, and while the results have been terrible over that span, they also haven’t been great: a 4.62 ERA with just 38 strikeouts in 39 innings. Cole’s strikeout and walk rates are the worst they’ve been since his Pittsburgh Pirates days, his fastball velocity is down one full mph, and his slider that’s been such a weapon over the past few years seems to have lost its bite (44.2% whiff rate in 2022 vs 27.1% this year). It’s too early to really start sounding the alarm, but the Yankees will need Cole at his best if they hope to make any kind of noise in October.
Speaking of former Houston Astros stars who’ve surprisingly struggled a bit this year: Verlander’s maddening season continue with another bumpy start last week, giving up five runs (four earned) on seven hits and a whopping four walks in just three innings against the Atlanta Braves. It’s been one step forward, one step back for the 40-year-old ever since returning from his shoulder injury, as his fastball velocity isn’t quite where it was and he’s generating fewer swings and misses than he ever has in his Hall of Fame career.
Over/Under pick
Just looking at the names on the marquee — and the way that these two lineups have scuffled of late — you can understand why this number is as low as it is. But both Cole and Verlander haven’t been nearly as sharp as we’ve come to expect, and after a 13-run game last night, I’m expecting the over to hit again on Wednesday. The Yankees have been finding ways to manufacture at least a couple of runs a game, while Cole has allowed five in three of his last six outings.
Pick: Over 7.5
Moneyline pick
Neither of these starters fill me with a ton of confidence tonight, but I think Verlander’s got the better chance of succeeding. That’s in large part because he’ll be facing a weaker lineup — the Mets may be without Alonso but they still have enough professional hitters to pounce on Cole if he again doesn’t have his best stuff — and also because the righty has owned this Yankees team over the last few years. With the Mets in desperate need of a win, I think the veteran comes through.
Pick: Mets
