This will be the final game of a three-game series in Atlanta. It’s the earliest game on the Thursday MLB schedule with first pitch scheduled for 12:15 p. m. ET.
Brandon Pfaadt is scheduled to pitch for Arizona while Grant Holmes should get the nod for Atlanta.
Diamondbacks at Braves prediction, preview
Brandon Pfaadt allowed eight earned runs without recording an out in his most recent start. In the prior three starts, he allowed three, three, and four earned runs, so the volcano warned us. He does have two shutouts, with one against the Dodgers so….baseball. The ugly 5.05 ERA is supported by the 5.01 FIP. While his control has been fine with 15 walks in 62.1 innings, the pitches are getting blasted. The average exit velocity is 92.5 mph, the second-worst mark in MLB. The hard hit rate is 50.3% and he’s the only pitcher above 50% in that category.
Pfaadt has been an equal opportunity giver, allowing both lefties and righties to have success against him. The one number that jumps out is that 11 of 12 home runs have been served up on the road.
Against right-handed pitching, the Braves have struck out at the 15th-highest rate with the 21st-best ISO. The wOBA is 12th-best in MLB.
Grant Holmes has pitched relatively well, as the ERA is 3.78. The 4.66 FIP doesn’t support it, though. The BABIP is only .230 while the strand rate is 81.2%. Regression is likely coming, but we never know when the regression fairies will sprinkle their dust. The 24.2% strikeout rate is decent but the walk rate is 10.2%. Holmes has allowed 11 home runs in 64.1 innings.
Seven of 11 home runs have been allowed to righties while his road ERA is 5.55 compared to 2.7 at home, and that’s with a .167/.276/.405 slash on the road.
Holmes has allowed more than three earned runs three times this season. There’s been two games in which he hasn’t allowed an earned run. Those came in two of the first three games of the season when he pitched only an inning and four innings. Holmes faced Arizona back in late April. He went 5.2 innings and allowed six earned runs and three home runs.
The Diamondbacks have struck out at the 22nd-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being first in ISO. The wOBA is second-best.
As for bullpens, Arizona has the 23rd-lowest FIP while Atlanta has the 16th-lowest.
Diamondbacks at Braves pick, best bet
I like both offenses in this one. Pfaadt has been susceptible to the long ball on the road, and he’s on the road for this one. He also just got lit up, so he may still be shook, or perhaps he’s tipping pitches. Whatever the case may be, I like the Braves to get busy. On the flip side, Arizona is potent against right-handed pitching and have already seen Holmes and lit him up.
