The Mets entered the season with high expectations after signing Juan Soto to a historic contract in free agency. The team had lost in the NLCS and proceeded to add one of the game’s best hitters to a potent lineup.
Although Soto hasn’t been great this year, the Mets have lived up to their standards so far. They’re 36-22 and tied for first in the NL East with the Phillies. They’re also tied with the Dodgers and Cubs for the best National League record.
New York has won seven of its last 10 games and has a series finale against the historically bad Rockies on Sunday. The Mets are -395 favorites at home, and the game total is set at over/under eight runs on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rockies are +310 on the moneyline.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Sunday’s Mets vs. Rockies matchup.
Mets vs. Rockies prediction
What is there to predict? The Rockies are 9-49 and will have a chance to break the all-time record for the worst MLB season. The 2024 White Sox set the record for most losses in a 162-game season with 121 losses.
Carson Palmquist is starting for Colorado in the third game of the series. The rookie was a third round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft and made his MLB debut this season. He’s 0-3 through three starts with an 8.78 ERA in 13.1 innings. Although it’s a small sample size, he’s walking 5.4 batters per nine innings, striking out just 4.1 per nine and allowing 12.8 hits per nine.
The Mets are starting Clay Holmes, who has been surprisingly good in his first season as a starter. He was previously an All-Star closer with the Yankees, but he’s pitching to a 2.98 ERA as a starter with the Mets.
Maybe the Rockies would have a slight chance if the Mets’ starter wasn’t great, but that won’t be the case on Sunday. Colorado’s struggling offense will face a quality starting pitcher on the road. The team is averaging the fewest runs per game at 3.14.
The Mets are a league-average team in terms of runs per game, but the Rockies also allow the most runs per game. New York scored eight on Saturday but just four on Friday.
Mets vs. Rockies pick, best bet
Considering how the Mets are such massive favorites, their moneyline and spread should not be considered. There’s barely any value there, making it a meaningless wager for most bettors. If you’re dying to include either the moneyline or spread, a parlay would be the way to go. Whether that’s a same-game parlay or traditional parlay with other games is up to the bettor.
For my best bet, I’m favoring the over on eight runs. The Rockies allow the most runs per game, and the Mets should capitalize on that for the second consecutive game. New York scored eight on its own on Saturday.
The Mets can do that again on Sunday with Palmquist starting for the Rockies. New York should get on the board early and can cover the over on its own. Still, I believe the Rockies will score at least a run or two. They have scored two runs in back-to-back games against the Mets.
A couple runs from Colorado would be great, but it shouldn’t be needed for the over to hit.