The Liberty are off to a 5-0 start to the 2025 season as they defend their 2024 WNBA championship. Three of the five games have been easy, with the other two finishing within five points.
Last night was one of the two as New York defeated the Golden State Valkyries 82-77. Now, the Liberty will take on the Washington Mystics on the road.
New York is an eight-point favorite, and the game total is set at 162.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here’s my prediction and pick for tonight’s Liberty vs. Mystics matchup.
Liberty vs. Mystics prediction
Don’t let a close game against the Valkyries fool you, the Liberty are a dominant force. Tight finishes happen even when there’s a major talent gap between teams. New York is one of two teams with an undefeated record and should be treated with the utmost respect in each matchup.
The Liberty are eight-point favorites on the road against a solid Mystics team. Washington is off to a 3-3 start led by Brittney Sykes. Rookies Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen have also been impressive through their first six games. The franchise has a bright future, especially since Georgia Amoore hasn’t even debuted yet.
That being said, the future isn’t here just yet. The Mystics have more growth to do, and it may take a couple years for this team to capitalize on a tremendous 2025 draft. New York should win this matchup and start the season 6-0.
Liberty vs. Mystics pick, best bet
Close game or blowout, one thing remains the same: New York scores a lot. The team is averaging 91.6 points per game, which is more than five points greater than the second highest. Additionally, the Liberty own a 14.8 point differential — once again the best mark in the league by six points.
The Liberty have scored at least 90 points in four of the first five games with last night’s game the only exception. In three of those five, New York has scored more than 162.5 points, tonight’s over/under mark.
The over for tonight’s matchup is appealing since it’s unlikely the Mystics slow down the Liberty. Washington is a solid defensive team this year, but it has allowed more points as the home team than on the road.
Additionally, the Mystics are a much better offensive team at home than on the road. They’ve played just two games at home vs. four games on the road, so it is a small sample size. However, the Liberty should be carrying the scoring load tonight anyway. If the Liberty score 90, the Mystics need just 73, which is below average for even for their road splits.