For the first time these playoffs, the New York Knicks’ backs are against the wall. After splitting the two road games against the Indiana Pacers, the Knicks trail, 3-1, in the Eastern Conference Finals, and Indiana is surely eager to punch its ticket to the NBA Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.
The crowd at Madison Square Garden surely won’t make that easy. New York fans are always eager to see their team, even when it’s losing; the cheapest ticket for tonight’s game is $500. Will a likely raucous crowd be enough to save the Knicks?
The public doesn’t think so, despite the fact that New York is a four-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-175 Moneyline), with the point total set to 223.5. The Pacers, meanwhile, are +145 on the Moneyline.
Pacers at Knicks Game 5 preview, prediction
Game 4 was eminently winnable for New York. Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, and OG Anunoby all played fairly well, and the Knicks shot 42.9% from beyond the arc. They also attempted 39 free throws and made a solid 33 of them. Even Delon Wright and Landry Shamet gave New York some decent minutes off the bench, with Wright a plus-11 in just nine minutes of game time. The Knicks got 11 more boards — including eight more offensive boards — directly leading to 15 second-chance points. Individually, Josh Hart produced his first double-double of the series, while Andrew Nembhard shot just one-for-nine.
But then you look at the final score: Indiana 130, New York 121. You look at Tyrese Haliburton’s historic line: 32 points, 15 assists, 12 rebounds, four steals, zero turnovers. His co-star, Pascal Siakam, had 30 points, five boards, a steal, and a block. Even Bennedict Mathurin chipped in with 20 points in less than 13 minutes off the bench. Knicks fans might feel good about their team having a chance to win despite Haliburton playing unsustainably well, or they might rue all the missed opportunities, poor shot selection, and blown coverages that ultimately lost the game.
These playoffs, Madison Square Garden hasn’t proven to be the impenetrable fortress that it arguably should be, given the passion that New York has for its team. The Knicks are just 3-5 at home these playoffs, with only a slightly positive net rating, unsurprisingly the worst home mark of the three remaining teams. While their net rating has been worse on the road, their record has been much better, and their home net rating can largely be tied to the blowout Game 6 win over the Boston Celtics in the second round. Without any significant home-court advantage, New York’s prognosis tonight is grim.
Pacers at Knicks pick, best bet
If there’s one man who can save the Knicks’ season, he wears the number 11, speaks softly, and does almost everything with his left hand. New York’s losses this series haven’t really been Brunson’s fault; although he hasn’t been perfect, averaging 33.3 points on 48-31-93 shooting splits for the series is about as much as you can ask for. It’s true that he could cut down on his turnovers — he’s averaging four per game this series, and the Pacers have won the turnover battle in each of their three wins — and the Knicks have been outscored with him on the floor, in part because he’s too small to be an elite on-ball defender. Still, if Brunson puts the team on his back once more, it’ll be because he went above and beyond like he did in the Game 4 win against Boston. Merely great has not been good enough.
The X-factor tonight will be the health of Towns’ knee. The big man went down clutching his knee after hard contact with Aaron Nesmith late in the fourth quarter on Tuesday, and he’s officially been listed as questionable for tonight’s game. I’d be surprised if he didn’t play at all, but he looked fairly limited after the injury. New York will need a fully-healthy Towns if it wants to exploit Indiana’s biggest weakness, which is the fact that it has allowed the fifth-most rebounds per game of this season’s 16 playoff participants. This season, Towns finished second in rebounds per game, and he ranks fifth in that category so far these playoffs, averaging 25.8 points and 11.5 boards per game this series. He’ll need to be at worst the third-best player on the floor tonight for the Knicks to win, and in the last three games, Pascal Siakam has been unequivocally better.
New York’s issue is that it hasn’t found a way to slow down Haliburton, who has been more aggressive on offense this series and is enjoying his highest-scoring playoff series of his career. Between the regular season and the playoffs, the Pacers are 14-2 when Haliburton has attempted 18 or more shots. The Knicks surely know that stat, and so does Rick Carlisle. Carlisle has out-coached Tom Thibodeau all series, and he’ll surely allow his point guard to stay aggressive from the field. 68.9% of his shots this series have come with the nearest defender more than four feet away, and the only thing particularly unsustainable about his shooting this series is his nine-for-13 (69.2%) mark from the midrange.
Haliburton’s frenetic motion and driving ferocity open up the floor for the rest of the team, allowing everyone else to get a bevy of open shots. All in all, 28.2% of Indiana’s shots have been wide-open, and 7.8% have been wide-open twos, the most efficient shot in the game. Siakam has posted a 58.1% effective field goal percentage this series in large part because more than half of his field goal attempts have come in the paint and he’s had at least four feet of separation on more than half of his shot attempts.
The Pacers have held their own in the paint and on second-chance points despite having a minus-23 rebounding differential so far this series in large part because of their rim protection. Of the 24 players in both conference’s finals who have guarded three or more shots per game within six feet of the basket, Myles Turner and Aaron Nesmith are among the three best, with Mikal Bridges and Brunson among the three worst, and three Indiana players rank ahead of the best New York player (Towns). Bridges and especially Brunson have missed some layups that they usually make, so there’s room for shooting variance, but in the aggregate, Indiana is doing an excellent job forcing tough shots and then contesting them well. Just 14.8% of the Knicks’ shots — and just 7.5% of their twos — have been wide open.
Then there’s the fast breaks: the Pacers have scored 16.3 fast-break points per game this series, as well as 21.5 points off turnovers. New York’s figure? 5.8 fast-break points and 8.3 off of turnovers. Ironically enough, the Knicks’ hustle means they fall a lot, so they put less pressure on Indiana as it initiates the fast-break. New York also has two distinct styles of offense, one Brunson-centric and a more free-flowing version with him on the bench, and the two iterations haven’t meshed yet. Both have their merits, but I don’t trust Thibodeau to figure out the right balance.
I’ve noted repeatedly that, from January 1 through the end of the regular season, the Pacers posted the seventh-best offense and ninth-best defense, ranks that would make them a slightly below-average championship unit. Across that same span, the Knicks ranked 16th on both sides of the ball. There’s one contender in this series — Indiana.
