The Thunder and Timberwolves continue the Western Conference Finals with Game 5 in Oklahoma City on Wednesday. Currently, the Thunder lead this series 3-1. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Thunder are an 8.5-point favorite for Game 5 and this contest carries a total of 220.5 points.
Below, I break down Game 5 between the Thunder and Timberwolves and give a pick for the game via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves preview, prediction
After getting embarrassed by 42 points in Game 3, the Thunder regrouped and beat the Timberwolves 128-126 in Game 4, giving Oklahoma City is a 3-1 series lead and a chance to advance to the NBA Finals in Game 5. In the bounce back win for the Thunder in Game 4, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander proved why he is this season’s NBA and had arguably the best performance of his career. In 40 minutes of work, Gilgeous-Alexander finished with a near triple-double of 40 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren were also outstanding. Williams scored a playoff-career high 34 points and Holmgren added 21 points, seven rebounds and three blocks. After the Thunder’s big three, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace were solid sparks off the bench, with 10 and seven points, respectively.
While the Timberwolves never led in this game after the first quarter, the team fought hard and made this a nail biter, as the Thunder only won by two points and 11 points was the team’s largest lead. Minnesota shot better, had more assists and out rebounded Oklahoma City, but the Timberwolves had 21 turnovers, compared to just 14 for the Thunder.
On top of Minnesota’s turnover issues, both Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle were major letdowns on their home floor. After scoring 30+ points in Games 2 and 3, Edwards finished with only 16 points in Game 4 and he was surprisingly tentative with only 13 shots. As for Randle, his old playoff woes were resurrected and he only scored five points on 1-for-7 shooting. With these two players struggling, Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Donte DiVincenzo all stepped up and scored over 20 points. While these brave performances were great to see from these role players, its hard to imagine anything like this happening in Game 5, with this series shifting back to Oklahoma City. Especially in the playoffs, role players always tend to play worse on the road, and if the Timberwolves are lucky, maybe one Minnesota role player will be able to have a strong showing as a scorer in Game 5. Heading into the hostile environment of the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, which has been the most difficult arena to win at this season, Minnesota needs it’s best players in Edwards and Randle to step up and lead the team if the Timberwolves want any chance of extending this series.
The Thunder should be an extremely confident group after taking Game 4 in Minnesota, as before this, Oklahoma City was just 3-3 on the road this postseason. Getting a vintage road win like this after being blown out in the previous game was an impressive response for this Thunder team and now, Oklahoma City is back at home in it’s comfort zone for Game 5, where the club has been a true powerhouse this season, with a league-best 42-7 record. Specifically in these playoffs, Oklahoma City is 7-1 at home with an absurd 27.7 average margin of victory. The Thunder boast a 24.2 net rating on their home floor this season, which is the best among the 16 teams that made the playoffs this season and it’s not even close. Ranking second is the Clippers at 15.0. The Thunder are truly one of the greatest teams of all time on their home floor and Oklahoma City shouldn’t disappoint in Game 5 with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves pick, best bet
As discussed above, the Thunder have been unstoppable at home this season and Oklahoma City should have no issues eliminating the Timberwolves in Game 5 tonight. The Thunder should have been favorited by more than an 8.5 points for this contest and Oklahoma City is a must-bet to cover this line.
This season, Oklahoma City is 59-35-4 ATS and 33-14-2 ATS at home, both of which are league-best records.
