Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Pacers and Knicks will be Tuesday night in Indiana. Currently, the Pacers hold a 2-1 series lead. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Pacers are a 2.5-point favorite for Game 4 and this contest carries a total of 220.5 points.
Below, I break down Game 4 between the Knicks and the Pacers and give a pick for the game via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pacers vs. Knicks preview, prediction
After losing both Games 1 and 2 at home in New York, the Knicks bounced back in Game 3, defeating the Pacers 106-100 in Indiana. The Pacers led by as many as 20 points, but New York rallied and erased this large deficit, which is the third time this postseason that the Knicks have come back to win after trailing by 20+ points. Karl-Anthony Towns was the savior for New York, as the big man was extremely clutch in the comeback, scoring 20 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter. Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges also scored 23, 16 and 15 points, respectively.
However, Brunson only logged 30 minutes in the win, which is easily the lowest playing time total the guard has seen this postseason. Brunson only logged 2.5 minutes in the fourth quarter when the Knicks were making their impressive comeback, as head coach Tom Thibodeau decided to keep rolling with Miles McBride, who finished with nine points in the victory. Overall, Brunson finished a team-worst -6 in the box score, but he did convert a late layup in the final minutes of this tilt to help New York seal the win. Also, the Knicks went with a new starting lineup for this contest, with Mitchell Robinson starting and Josh Hart moving to the bench. Robinson posted six points, six rebounds, one block and one steal across 28 minutes while finishing a +1 in plus/minus. The main goal with moving the center into the first unit was to improve the Knicks’ defense and New York certainly did that, as it held the Pacers’ offense to a playoff-low 100 points, which is well under Indiana’s 117.4 PPG average for the season. Given that the Knicks won with Robinson starting over Hart, it’s safe to expect Robinson to start again for Game 4.
In the loss for the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton led the way with 20 points, while Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam scored 19 and 17 points, respectively. T.J. McConnell also added 12 points off the bench, but starters Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith were held to single digits. As a team, Indiana went cold from downtown, shooting 20% on three-pointers after the Pacers shot 41.9% from beyond the arc in the first two games of the series. Nesmith sprained his ankle in the Game 3 loss, but he was able to return and play the final seven minutes of this contest. The wing is listed as questionable for Game 4, but Nesmith feels likely to play in this pivotal tilt.
The Pacers need one of Nesmith or Nembhard to have a strong showing as a scorer if the team wants to strike back in Game 4, but most importantly, Indiana needs to get back to playing its brand of basketball and the Pacers simply need to be more focused. The bottom line is Indiana should have won Game 3, but the club got a little too confident once it got a large, early lead, and it let the Knicks right back into the contest. The Pacers reverted from being one of the fastest teams in the NBA and let the Knicks slow the game down. Plus, Indiana struggled in the final moments of the loss, which was uncharacteristic of the club, as the Pacers rank third in net rating in clutch situations this postseason, which is when there is five minutes or less in the game and the score is within five points or less. Following the frustrating Game 3 loss, expect the Pacers to be a more poised group in Game 4 that will be focused on making this an up-tempo game environment.
As for the Knicks, if the team wants to even this series at two wins apiece in Game 4, New York needs to keep playing stout defense and the Knicks will need both Towns and Brunson to have great performances. Furthermore, New York needs to attempt to keep slowing the pace of this game down, as a slow-paced setting much better suits the Knicks than the Pacers.
Pacers vs. Knicks pick, best bet
After giving up the big lead in Game 3, the Pacers should get back on track in Game 4 and take a 3-1 series lead in this Eastern Conference Finals. Indiana has simply been the better team than the Knicks for the majority of this series and during these playoffs overall. This postseason, the Pacers are 10-3 and rank fifth in net rating, while the Knicks are 9-6 and rank seventh in net rating.
Another factor here is that this New York team hasn’t been great when coming off a win this season with a 33-26 record. Meanwhile, the Pacers have been strong when coming off a loss with a 22-12 record. At a reasonable -135 price on the moneyline, backing Indiana to win Game 4 is the right move.
