The New York Liberty are rolling. They’re 3-0, have the best net rating in the W, and look like a team threatening to defend the title. The nascent Golden State Valkyries are hoping to slow their roll.
It’s going to be a tall task. New York has the best offense in the league in the early going. Led by their star trio of Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones, they boast offensive firepower that few can match. The absence of Betnijah Laney-Hamilton has impeded their defense somewhat, but they’re figuring out how to graft on that end.
The expansion Valkyries are the opposite. They’ve been finding ways to win through defense and competitive hustle. Head coach Natalie Nakase has them firing on that end while they cobble together enough offense to win. So far, the Valks have five different players averaging double-digit points. This team has looked confident and they won’t be content to roll over like your usual expansion squad.
The Liberty are 15.5-point favorites at home and are -1350 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 165.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Prediction for Liberty vs. Valkyries
While the result is all but assured as a win for the Liberty, it will be an interesting measuring stick for the Valkyries. Playing the best offense in the league will be a challenge for a team looking to build an identity on defense.
New York should win this one, but the how is up in the air. Will their offense run roughshod over the plucky Valks defense? Or can Golden State drag them down in the mud and make this one ugly, at least for stretches? My money is on the latter.Pick for Liberty vs. Valkyries
Picks for Liberty vs. Valkyries
Golden State Valkyries +15.5 (-108)
Like I said, I am confident that the Valks can drag the Liberty down to their level. An ugly defensive game going halfcourt to halfcourt benefits Golden State more than the Liberty. That would make this a tough spread to cover.
The Valks haven’t beaten any elite teams so far, and taking them +850 on the moneyline is too risky for my blood. But they’re going to surprise people with their compete level. They can keep this one within striking distance even against a team as good as the Liberty.
Jonquel Jones 10+ Rebounds (+105)
If this is going to be ugly, Jonquel Jones will be heavily involved. She’s hit double-digit rebounds in two of the season’s first three contests. As New York’s best rebounder and arguably their most important defender, they’ll need her working down low against a large Valks frontcourt.
You could play her points + rebounds combo at 25+ for similar value, but on a night where points could be at a premium, I’m keeping it safe by going with her glass work.
