Yesterday must have felt like serendipity for Chelsea, who have weathered an up-and-down Premier League season to finish fourth in the table, ensuring themselves Champions League football for next season. It’s the Blues’ best league finish in three seasons, after they missed out on the European places entirely in 2022-23 and finished sixth last season.
That sixth-place result, combined with Manchester United’s win in the FA Cup final, meant that Chelsea participated in the Europa Conference League, the third-tier continental competition, for the first time. The Blues entered the competition as the clear favorites, with [x odds] to win the trophy at DraftKings Sportsbook, but they still had to get the job done.
Chelsea lived up to its status as the favorite, making quick work of the competition while usually starting less than a first-choice XI. The Blues’ depth and youth turned out to be a huge asset, as they could reasonably focus on both the European competition while still performing solidly in the Premier League. In Wednesday’s UECL final, which will take place in Wrocław, Poland, Chelsea will face Spanish side Real Betis, who entered the tournament with [x] odds to lift the trophy.
The Blues are -115 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the tie in regular time, with Real Betis at +330, and there are +250 odds that the teams will require extra time. Chelsea is -245 to lift the cup — its first major international trophy since claiming the Champions League in 2021 — while Los Verdiblancos are +190. If Betis were to win, it would be their first European trophy. Here are my best bets from the game.
Chelsea to Win to Zero (+180)
I have my concerns about the Blues, and I didn’t feel particularly confident about them qualifying for the Champions League via their Premier League finish. The attack has been off in recent weeks — it has scored one or fewer goals in each of its last four games — and that might be a cause for concern tomorrow, but it should be a little bit better now that striker Nicolas Jackson, who had been suspended for the final three games of the Premier League season after picking up a red card for a poorly-taken challenge against Newcastle, is back in action. Jackson is far from a clinical finisher — his 12.3 expected goals in the Premier League only resulted in 10 actual goals — but the attack is more potent with him on the pitch and both of his shots in the Conference League have found the back of the net. Christopher Nkunku is also set to return.
With Jackson in action and Cole Palmer starting to round closer to his early-season form, Chelsea should get at least one goal, which could easily be enough against Betis. The Blues have kept three clean sheets in their past four matches, winning each of the matches in which they scored, including a 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest on the final day of the season. Goalkeeper Filip Jørgensen leads the Conference League in saves, ranks second in save percentage, and fifth in clean sheet percentage, and he has a strong defense to back him up. Left back Marc Cucurella had three tackles in the season-ending win over Forest, and center back Tosin Adarabioyo had 12 clearances. Club captain Reece James also had two blocks. It’s possible that Chelsea rotates its squad somewhat, given Betis’ 48-hour rest advantage and the fact that the Blues will play in this summer’s Club World Cup.
Betis had a solid season, finishing sixth in La Liga and scoring the sixth-most goals in the competition, but Los Verdiblancos have also scored two or fewer goals in each of their past six matches while giving up at least one goal in each of their last 11. They were merely an average finishing squad in La Liga, finishing with just 0.4 goals more than expected, and they’ll have to be more clinical if they want to score against Chelsea’s strong back line. Then, on the other end, goalkeeper Fran Vieites has posted just a 53.3% save percentage in the Conference League, so he’s rather exploitable. Betis got a little bit lucky during the domestic season, allowing the third-shortest average shot distance in La Liga, so the Blues will simply have to be more clinical on their close shots than the average La Liga team to get one past Vieites.
Moisés Caicedo 3+ Tackles (+145)
Chelsea raised some eyebrows in 2023 when they signed the Ecuadorian for 116 million Euros from Brighton, but he has been arguably the Blues’ best player this season. Caicedo started every single Premier League match, mostly as a central defensive midfielder, completed nearly 90% of his passes, recorded 114 of his tackles on a 62.8% tackle rate — which ranked fifth in the Premier League — and also recorded 49 interceptions and 60 clearances. He recorded three or more tackles in 26 of his 52 appearances, and including four in the Round of 16 second-leg tie against Copenhagen.
Betis, meanwhile, was a below-average dribbling team this season. Los Verdiblancos were successful on just 43.2% of their take-ons in La Liga and were tackled at the ninth-highest rate. They also posted the second-most mis-controls in the division and were dispossessed the second-most times. Although they were somewhat better in the Conference League, posting the sixth-best take-on success rate and the fifth-lowest tackle rate, the Blues’ defense is far closer to a top-level La Liga side than it is to some of the lower-ranked sides that Betis faced in the competition.
Fran Vieites 4+ Saves (+120)
Vieites hasn’t yet recorded more than three saves in any Conference League match so far, but that’s only because he hasn’t faced that many shots. Fiorentina, in the second leg of the semifinal, were the first team to get more than two shots on target off, and Vieites saved three of them. It’s not unreasonable to think that Chelsea could notch one more shot on target than Fiorentina, especially with its suddenly-healthy attack. The Blues, in fact, have recorded five or more shots on target in every single Conference League match and lead the tournament both in total shots on target and in shot on target percentage. The opposing goalkeeper has been forced to make four or more saves in nine of those 12 matches.
Betis allowed 3.61 shots on target per 90 minutes in La Liga, as well as a 32.8% shot-on-target percentage, both of which were about average in the division. In the Conference League, Los Verdiblancos have allowed the fewest shots on target per 90 as well as the second-lowest shot-on-target percentage, but I’m still going to back brilliant offense over brilliant defense in this one and posit that volume will get Chelsea — and, by extension, Vieites — over the line.
