If you told me it’d take ten solid weeks of 2025’s Major League Baseball season for Pete Crow-Armstrong to blossom into a borderline household name, I’d call bullshit. But here we are, entering match week 11 in the season-long fantasy baseball campaign, and this kid stalking center field at Wrigley most days feels like this generation of baseball’s superstar archetype. Edgy, flashy, disarmingly clutch, strikeout-heavy-barrel-heavy, and a nightmare on the basepaths. Easy enough to point to O’Neil Cruz and his 122.9mph home run last night. Things are just getting exciting, and I have picks and predictions written for Guardians vs. Dodgers, Rays vs. Twins, Royals vs. Reds, and more. Having said that, here are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Royals vs. Reds u8.0 runs (-120)
The total for this matchup is set at 8.0, and the under looks like the sharp approach here. Cincinnati’s offense isn’t lighting it up, ranking ninth in runs but only 17th in batting average (.244). Despite their decent slugging percentage, they strike out far too often (27th in MLB), which bodes well for Lorenzen, who’s been solid at home (0.95 ERA in his last three starts). Kansas City, on the other hand, is near the bottom of the league in runs (27th), on-base percentage (26th), and slugging (27th). Their offensive struggles have been compounded by an inability to hit for power, ranking 30th in home runs. With Martinez’s ability to limit damage, this doesn’t shape up as a high-scoring affair.
On the mound, Martinez’s 3.43 ERA and 1.14 WHIP are steady low-ceiling scoring numbers, while Lorenzen, despite a rough stretch recently, holds a solid 3.77 ERA. Both teams have a tendency to go under in interleague games, and with Kauffman Stadium’s spacious dimensions, this contest is more likely to stay under 8.0 runs. With pitching matchups favoring low-scoring, combined with both offenses’ recent form, the under holds significant value here.
Rays (-125) vs. Twins
Tampa Bay’s pitching, led by Zack Littell (1.15 WHIP), has been dominant, with five straight quality starts. His 5.8 K/9 and low walk rate (1.5 BB/9) highlight his ability to limit damage. Meanwhile, Chris Paddack has posted a solid 3.98 ERA, but struggles on the road with a 4.97 ERA. His low strikeout rate (5.1 K/9) raises concerns against Tampa’s aggressive offense.
The Rays’ offense, though middling, has come alive, with Brandon Lowe (.361 avg, five HR in last 10 games) leading the charge. Junior Caminero’s .316 average over the last five games adds depth. Tampa also leads MLB in stolen bases (71), creating constant pressure on opposing pitchers.
Minnesota’s offense struggles, ranking 21st in runs per game (4.04). With Buxton sidelined, their reliance on power hitters like Ty France and Trevor Larnach is concerning. The Twins have only scored more than four runs in two of their last five games.
With the Rays at home, having won five straight, and Littell in strong form, Tampa Bay offers more value. The underdog Twins have struggled historically at this venue. Bet on the Rays to extend their streak, and put the Twins’ streak further in the rearview.
Guardians vs. Dodgers u7.5 runs (-120)
With Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1.86 ERA) on the mound for Los Angeles, expect him to command the game. He’s been near untouchable, limiting opposing batters to just a .172 average. Gavin Williams, however, has struggled against potent lineups, including a dreadful 18.00 ERA in his two career starts against the Dodgers. Despite his solid form lately, Williams’ inconsistency—especially against right-handed hitters—could expose him.
The Guardians, led by José Ramírez, are riding an 18-game hitting streak. However, their offensive struggles rank them 23rd in runs per game. Cleveland’s .231 batting average ranks near the bottom, further dampening their chances. The Dodgers, conversely, rank 2nd in slugging and scoring, making their lineup a consistent threat.
Recent trends push this game toward the under. Cleveland’s last seven games have gone under the total, and they’ve struggled offensively against high-caliber starters. Additionally, Los Angeles has hit the under in four of their last five. The starting pitchers’ ability to keep offenses in check, combined with the Guardians’ lack of firepower, leads to a low-scoring prediction.
The pitching matchup favors a controlled, methodical game that won’t see the scoreboard light up.
