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Barclays Premier League Best Bets: Top picks for Matchweek 38

Barclays Premier League Best Bets: Top picks for Matchweek 38

Published:

By: Griffin Wong

It seems like not too long ago that the 20 Premier League teams took the pitch for the first time, wide-eyed about the season ahead. We didn’t know what would transpire — that Liverpool would win the title, that the three newly-promoted sides would suffer the drop for the second straight season, and that the final fight for the European places would come down to the final day.

Premier League legend Mohamed Salah wrote another tremendous chapter into the history books, while young stars like Dean Huijsen played their way into global conscience and big-money moves. Nottingham Forest is set to complete a rise for the ages, challenging for Champions League football a year after surviving relegation on the final day, and Tottenham, Crystal Palace, and Newcastle all broke long trophy droughts. Despite the lack of drama in the title race, it was an incredible season.

Football fans can make bets every matchweek at DraftKings Sportsbook. For the final time in 2024-25, here are my favorite bets from this Sunday’s action.

First, let’s take a look at the full list of fixtures, all of which will kick off Sunday at 11 a.m. ET:

Leicester City at AFC Bournemouth
Manchester City at Fulham
West Ham United at Ipswich Town
Crystal Palace at Liverpool
Aston Villa at Manchester United
Everton at Newcastle United
Chelsea at Nottingham Forest
Arsenal at Southampton
Brighton & Hove Albion at Tottenham
Brentford at Wolves


Liam Delap Anytime Goalscorer (+125)

Ipswich Town looked as if it might be the surprise package of the Premier League this season, as of the three newly-promoted sides, it was the one with the least impressive recent pedigree. Ultimately, the Tractor Boys went down with even less of a fight than 18th-placed Luton Town did last season, picking up just one win in the league after the new year and almost certainly finishing 19th, 16 points off safety. None of the newly-promoted sides this season even produced many memorable moments, but of all the players on the three relegated sides, Delap was probably the best. His 30 million pound release clause is almost certain to be activated this summer, and a goal on the final day would be a great way to finish out his maiden top-flight campaign.

Admittedly, he’s been in poor form lately — he’s on a six-match scoring drought, and he’s been brought off the bench thrice in that span — but as one of the division’s breakout stars this season, it would be a nice way to end his season. He’s recorded at least one shot on target in two of his three starts since his last goal, so it’s not like he hasn’t been a factor in the action. If he’s going to end his scoring drought, West Ham is a decent team to do it against: the Hammers sit 14th in the Premier League and have given up the fifth-most goals and the fifth-most shots on target. Alphonse Areola has kept just one clean sheet in his last 10 matches — a stretch over which his team has picked up just one win — and if any Tractor Boy is going to score, it’ll be Delap.


Mohamed Salah to Score and Liverpool to Win (-115)

Salah once looked guaranteed to break the Premier League record for goal contributions of 47, shared by Alan Shearer and Andy Cole. The 32-year-old Egyptian had 27 goals and 17 assists through the first 29 matches of the season, requiring him simply to notch four goal contributions over the final nine matches. But with the league secured, Salah’s frenetic place has slowed down, and he still sits two goal contributions shy of matching the record entering Sunday’s match. It’s worth noting that Shearer and Cole both accomplished their feats in a 42-game season, so Salah will hold the 38-match record regardless.

The Reds have stagnated since securing the title, drawing once and losing twice against fairly strong teams. Several important players, including Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold, sat out the recent defeat to Brighton, as there’s no point in risking long-term injury to stars in meaningless games. While Sunday’s match will be meaningless in the standings for both clubs — Crystal Palace, by virtue of winning the FA Cup, is assured a place in the Europa League and can’t finish in a qualifying place in the league — Liverpool will officially lift the trophy in front of its home fans at the match’s conclusion. The Reds will surely want to finish their season with a win, and van Dijk and Salah will surely want to put on a show for their home fans prior to celebrating their momentous accomplishment.

Palace has a solid defense — it has allowed the 10th-fewest goals and seventh-fewest shots on target and held Manchester City scoreless in the FA Cup final behind a five-save performance from goalkeeper Dean Henderson — but it seems that whenever Salah wants to score, he does. His dip in form in the last three matches shouldn’t be seen as a sign that he’s no longer as dangerous a threat, and he got unlucky not to score against Brighton after producing chances worth 0.8 expected goals. He’ll break his scoring “drought” and perhaps even tie Shearer and Cole in dramatic fashion before the confetti falls upon Anfield.


Nottingham Forest Moneyline (+215)

As a Chelsea supporter, this is fully an emotional hedge, but I simply don’t have confidence in my team. The Blues controlled their own destiny entering the final three games of the season and didn’t put up much of a fight in a 2-0 defeat against Newcastle in Matchweek 36, amassing just 0.7 expected goals from their 10 shots, and striker Nicolas Jackson was sent off for a reckless challenge, suspending him for both the Matchweek 37 win over Manchester United and this week’s match. Chelsea did well to beat United last weekend, but Reece James’ beautiful assist to Marc Cucurella aside, it wasn’t a particularly convincing performance, especially since United had one eye on the Europa League final.

For all of Jackson’s finishing difficulties this season — he managed just 10 goals from 12.3 expected goals — he’s still an attacking threat and the Blues’ offense is much less potent without him. There’s a reason why Chelsea is in the rumored market for every top-level striker in Europe this summer from Delap to Victor Osimhen to Viktor Gyökeres; if the Blues fail to qualify for the Champions League, it’ll be because of a front that has scored more than three goals in a Premier League match just once since the start of February.

As much as I’d like Chelsea to make the Champions League, it’d also be unfortunate for Premier League fans if Forest — arguably the best story of the season — fell short in the end. They sat in third for most of the season, looking to control their own destiny, but a series of poor results in the closing stretch condemned them to a likely Conference League berth. But despite a stretch of three losses in four Premier League matches and elimination from the FA Cup at the hands of Man City, a 2-1 win over West Ham last weekend seemed to get the season back on track. Between Chris Wood and Matz Sels, Forest also has the advantage at the two most important positions on the pitch. Both players are in solid form — Wood has netted in two of his last five games and Selz has notched four or more saves in six of his last eight.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.