I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday night baseball game between the Astros and the Mariners already published here at DKN, which you can check out at the link. The biggest storyline at Daikin Park tonight might be the return of Mariners’ young 1B (to Logan Gilbert’s 1A) ace, George Kirby, who’s making his season debut after injuring his shoulder earlier this year. He’s likely to be on a tight pitch count tonight on the road, so his betting market is a bit skewed. Let’s evaluate his’s best prop bets on the market for tonight’s game between the Astros and the Mariners.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Best George Kirby prop bet for Astros vs. Mariners tonight
George Kirby over 1.5 runs allowed (-120)
Despite his impressive career ERA of 3.43, Kirby is returning from some nasty shoulder inflammation, which introduces a layer of uncertainty. And necessary cynicism! His recent rehab starts show signs of rust, with a 7.20 ERA in Triple-A. Kirby also faces an Astros lineup that’s been improving despite their overall struggles.
The Astros, who rank 21st in runs scored, have started to heat up. They’ve been hitting to a .317 OBP, led by Jeremy Peña and Isaac Paredes. Paredes has been especially effective against right-handed pitchers this season, with a .504 slugging percentage and 10 home runs. Houston’s offense has turned a corner with a 103 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. With Kirby’s limited pitch count in his season debut, expect the Astros to capitalize on his short leash, especially with their solid strike zone discipline.
Houston’s hitters are aggressive, ranking 2nd in MLB for strikeouts but also 11th in hard-hit rate. Kirby’s ability to miss bats could be tested here. The Astros have hit .306 over their last 10, showing resilience against righties. As a team, the Astros have averaged 2.6 runs per game against right-handed starters in the last 10 games, providing a consistent scoring threat early in games. Kirby also struggles with Houston’s lefty-heavy lineup, which puts 46% of balls in play from the left side.
Given Kirby’s injury history, short pitch count, and the Astros’ increasing offensive rhythm, it’s likely he’ll surrender at least two runs tonight. Houston’s approach and Kirby’s uncertainty make the over 1.5 runs bet the sharp pick.
Best bet: George Kirby over 1.5 runs allowed (-120)
I like Kirby! Just not tonight—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
