Tonight’s showdown between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds promises to be an exciting clash at Great American Ball Park. The Cubs enter this game with a commanding 30-20 record, leading their division and boasting a top-tier offense. Meanwhile, the Reds (25-26) are still looking to find consistency, sitting a bit below .500. Despite their slightly underwhelming record, the Reds are hungry for an upset on home turf. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Reds and the Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Reds vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Chicago’s offense has been relentless across the 2025 campaign, if a bit underwhelming recently.. They lead the league with 5.9 runs per game, backed by a powerful lineup that ranks 5th in home runs (69). The Cubs also sport a solid .261 team batting average, proving that their offense can generate consistent scoring. Key players like Kyle Tucker, who leads the team with 12 home runs, and Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has 12 homers and 39 RBIs, provide plenty of firepower. Tucker is also just purely hitting, with a .278 avg & a .516 slugging percentage, and has been on fire recently, posting a .389 average with two home runs over his last five games.
On the mound, the Cubs will rely on Matthew Boyd (4-2, 2.98 ERA), who has been steady this season. Boyd’s 9.3 K/9 rate is solid, and he has limited opponents to just a .229 batting average this year. While the Cubs’ pitching staff as a whole ranks 16th in ERA (3.90), Boyd’s ability to control the game with his strikeouts will be crucial, especially against a Reds team that ranks 27th in strikeouts per game. Boyd’s control, along with his strong ERA and WHIP (1.28), sets up the Cubs to handle the Reds’ offense with relative ease.
Cincinnati’s offense has shown flashes but remains inconsistent. They rank 10th in runs scored (228), but they struggle to get on base consistently, sitting at 19th in team batting average (.241). Elly De La Cruz has led the charge, batting .271 with eight home runs and 33 RBIs, but his strikeout rate (27.2%) is a concern when facing a pitcher like Boyd who excels at limiting free passes. TJ Friedl, hitting .274 with 23 walks, has been a bright spot, but he’ll face a Cubs staff that’s ranked 23rd in K/9, which may help him get on base more frequently. However, Boyd’s strikeout potential against the Reds’ lineup is key. More on that later.
Cincinnati’s pitching staff has been solid with a 3.48 team ERA, but their ace, Hunter Greene (4-2, 2.36 ERA), will face a tough test. Greene has been outstanding, with a 12.3 K/9 rate and holding opponents to a .232 average. Still, the Cubs’ offensive depth and power should wear him down. Greene’s 3.7 FIP indicates he’s been slightly fortunate, and Chicago’s power-heavy lineup could exploit any slight mistakes he makes. The Reds have allowed 55 home runs this season, and with the Cubs’ potent offense, that’s a concerning stat.
Cubs vs. Reds pick, best bet
The Reds’ have neither a large nor encouraging pedigree this season against left-handed starters. They’ve faced southpaws in just 12 games, winning only five of those matchups—amounts to a 41.7% win rate. As a team, Cincinnati is batting .241 on the season, but that figure dips to .230 when facing left-handed pitchers.
Their struggles against lefties extend beyond just batting average; they strike out an average of nine times per game in these matchups, ranking 27th in MLB for strikeouts per game. Additionally, their on-base percentage (OBP) plummets to .311, further highlighting the challenge they face when up against southpaw starters. This trend is crucial for understanding how Boyd, a lefty, will likely neutralize their offense.
Cincinnati’s bullpen, while solid with a 3.49 ERA, doesn’t match up well against the Cubs’ lineup, which ranks in the top-five for home runs and runs scored. Chicago’s recent form has been strong, going 7-2 in their last nine games, and their ability to get runners on base consistently will test the Reds’ relief corps.
Chicago has been solid on the road, and their offense will be too much for the Reds to handle.
Best bet: Cubs (-115) at Reds
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