The Mariners enter Houston on Thursday night, looking to extend their strong AL West lead against a struggling Astros team. Seattle has surged to a 28-20 record, powered by their stellar pitching and timely offense. The Astros, sitting at 25-24, are dealing with injuries and inconsistent play, especially with Lance McCullers Jr. on the mound. With a 7.88 ERA across three starts this season, McCullers has been shaky, allowing 10 earned runs in 8.1 innings. He’ll need to rely on his bullpen, which has been solid, but their depth is currently a question mark. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday night baseball game between the Astros and the Mariners.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Astros vs. Mariners prediction, preview
Seattle is fresh off a 6-5 win over the White Sox. On this road trip, the Mariners have begun showing their offensive prowess, ranking ninth in runs per game (4.7). The Mariners also boast a solid 2.57 K/BB ratio, ranking 4th in MLB, and a .324 OBP, which highlights their patient, disciplined approach at the plate. Cal Raleigh continues to shine with 16 home runs and 33 RBIs, while Julio Rodriguez has been a recently-emergent force at the plate, contributing nine home runs and 18 walks. However, the Mariners’ recent performances against right-handed pitchers haven’t been dominant, making this matchup intriguing.
Enter George Kirby—returning from injury and making his season debut. Kirby posted a 3.53 ERA last season and dominated the Astros in 2024, holding them to a .198 average. His return could be a game-changer, although he’ll be limited to a pitch count. Kirby’s 1.1 BB/9 in 2024 led all qualified starters and thus placed him in the 100th percentile for control in 2024. The Mariners have been elite defensively, sitting at 11th in ERA (3.62) and boasting one of the lowest WHIPs (1.30), and Kirby’s elite control will be crucial for Seattle to maintain its edge.
While McCullers has an impressive career record against the Mariners, his recent struggles cannot be overlooked. His 2.13 WHIP this season indicates trouble with command. McCullers has allowed a .538 OBP the first time through the lineup this month, which speaks to his inability to suppress opposing hitters early. The Mariners’ lineup has taken advantage of similar pitchers, ranking second in walk rate and 4th in BB/K ratio. If McCullers loses control early, it could spell trouble for the Astros, who have scored the second-fewest runs in the majors (3.98 per game).
Mariners vs. Astros pick, best bet
Offensively for Houston, Isaac Paredes has been the lone bright spot, leading the team with 10 home runs and 28 RBIs. However, the Astros’ offense ranks 23rd in slugging percentage (.375), and they’re struggling to generate consistent power. Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers have flashed potential, but they remain middle-of-the-pack hitters—Peña’s .297 average and six homers haven’t been enough to carry the lineup. Despite a solid on-base percentage, the Astros have a concerning .251 team OBP against right-handed pitchers, which will put pressure on McCullers to deliver early.
Houston’s bullpen has been their bright spot this season, ranking second in ERA (3.38). However, with McCullers likely working fewer innings, they’ll be forced to carry a heavier load. While the Astros’ pitching staff ranks highly, the lack of offensive production and injuries to key hitters, including Yordan Alvarez, makes Kirby’s return a bitter pill to swallow.
The Mariners’ road record (15-9) and recent form (5-1 in their last six games) gives them a solid edge in this matchup. The Astros have struggled at home against Seattle, going just 2-8 in their last 10 at Daikin Park. Considering Kirby’s track record and Seattle’s superior offense, they are the stronger pick here.
The Mariners’ pitching depth and offensive consistency outweigh Houston’s potential in this game, especially with the struggles of McCullers and the Astros’ underwhelming offense. The value here lies in Seattle securing the win on the road, with Kirby’s return giving them a much-needed boost.
Best bet: Mariners (-140) at Astros
Kirby’s Big Adventure begins today—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
