The Braves are in Washington to take on the Nationals, and tonight’s game should see a bounce-back performance from Atlanta. The Braves come into this matchup following a frustrating 5-3 loss last night in the nation’s capitol, but trends suggest this Atlanta squad should be able to back their starter tonight. If he doesn’t blow up. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Nationals and the Braves.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Nationals vs. Braves prediction, preview
On the mound, AJ Smith-Shawver (3-2, 2.33 ERA) has been solid, boasting a 9.3 K/9 rate and a stellar 2.33 ERA through 38.2 innings. He’s allowed just 3 home runs this season, showing his ability to control the long ball, a critical aspect against a Nationals lineup that is middle-of-the-pack in slugging percentage (.390). His control has been tight, with a 1.24 WHIP. He’s also got a solid ability to miss bats, which will be crucial against a Nationals offense that’s been hitting well recently, but only just. His career 1.00 ERA against Washington (in two starts) further solidifies the belief that he’s the better arm tonight.
Meanwhile, Trevor Williams (2-5, 5.91 ERA) continues to flounder with his control, struggling in his last several starts. His WHIP is a troubling 1.53, and he’s allowed four or more earned runs in four consecutive starts. Williams has faced Atlanta multiple times, but despite a decent career ERA (3.50), he’s vulnerable, as evidenced by his recent 5.91 ERA this season. His K/9 sits at 7.5, a stark contrast to Smith-Shawver’s 9.3, showing Williams’ inability to miss enough bats to limit damage. Atlanta’s offense, led by Matt Olson and Austin Riley, will be looking to capitalize on Williams’ mistakes. Olson, with 10 home runs this season, has been on fire, posting a .400 average over his last five games. Riley’s steady presence (.283 avg, 28 RBIs) only adds to the potency of this lineup.
The Braves’ offense has been a bit streaky, but with players like Olson, Riley, and Marcell Ozuna (who’s due for a breakout after a cold spell), they should be able to break through against Williams, who has been prone to surrendering long balls and extra-base hits. In fact, Williams has allowed 58 hits in 45.2 innings, equating to an average of 1.3 hits per inning. His struggles in limiting hard contact should be troubling against a Braves lineup with 50 home runs on the season and a .390 slugging percentage.
The Nationals will need CJ Abrams and James Wood to step up once more. Abrams has been excellent, hitting .313 and providing spark from the leadoff spot. Wood, with 12 home runs and 30 RBIs, has been a standout as well, but even with their efforts, the Nationals face a significant uphill battle against Smith-Shawver’s control and the Braves’ depth. Abrams’ 6th-ranked slugging percentage (.569) shows he has the potential to put pressure on Smith-Shawver early, but a strikeout rate of 18% suggests he’ll have trouble against Smith-Shawver’s high K rate.
Braves vs. Nationals pick, best bet
While the Nationals have won their last four games, including a solid 5-3 win last night, this win streak is bound to cool down against a Braves team that, despite road struggles, is the more complete team. Washington’s bullpen, while capable, won’t be able to carry the load for long, especially with Williams on the mound. Washington’s bullpen carries a 5.24 ERA, and their reliance on it could become an issue if the game remains close late.
The Braves have won each of their last 10 night games at Nationals Park after a loss. They’re also 5-0 on the road in their last five games following a loss to NL East teams. Smith-Shawver should lock down a Nationals lineup that has a tendency to falter against solid pitching, and with the Braves’ offense waking up, they should be able to cover the run line.
Additionally, with a 3.75 bullpen ERA, Atlanta’s relief staff should provide ample support should Smith-Shawver need any help.
Best bet: Atlanta Braves (-155) at Nationals
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