The Blue Jays come into tonight’s tilt against the Padres sitting at 23-24. If that feels like familiar territory, that’s because it very much is. In fact, it has been exactly a month since Toronto found itself above .500, back when the team was 12-11 on April 21. Since then, it has been stuck in a spin cycle of mediocrity.
San Diego is in a bit a similar spot. The Padres still find themselves well above .500 thanks to an impressive 14-3 start to the season, but the squad is just 13-16 in the 29 games since. They’ve also lost four in a row after Tuesday’s shutout, having only scored three total runs in that span of time.
Will San Diego break out of its slump? Will the Jays get back to .500 yet again? Let’s preview this tilt with the help of some lines and odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
I’m not sure what to do with Kevin Gausman, who comes into this contest with a 3.77 FIP that is identical to his mark from last season. However, unlike 2024, after giving up 10 hits and six earned runs to Tampa in his last outing, Gausman’s ERA currently sits at an ugly 4.59. The easy thing to point to is Gausman’s drop in strikeout rate, but areas like his average fastball velocity (94.6) and his swinging strike rate (11.7%) have actually improved drastically from this time last year. It’s not like opponents are hitting his splitter, either, though the veteran RHP is inducing fewer whiffs with the offering than in his prime.
No, Gausman’s issues can really be boiled down to the simple fact that opponents are crushing his four-seam fastball at the moment. The 34-year-old owns a ninth percentile barrel rate (12.6%) and most of those batted ball events have come off a fastball, as Gausman’s allowed a .537 expected slugging percentage with the pitch so far in 2025. Gausman’s had good starts this season and he’ll get better when his 61.1% strand rate normalizes, but it does truly seems like his days of garnering AL Cy Young votes is over. Gausman is just difficult to trust at the moment.
Fortunately for the Blue Jays, Randy Vasquez isn’t exactly a model of consistency, either. While the right-hander has posted back-to-back quality starts for the Padres, Vasquez enters play on Wednesday in possession of a 5.12 FIP and a 5.58 xERA — the ninth-highest mark of any pitcher with at least 40 innings under their belt this season. Across nine outings, Vasquez has walked more batters (26) than he’s struck out (23), and a third percentile whiff rate (16.3%) doesn’t make it seem like rosier times are on the horizon.
Padres vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
While I would lean towards Gausman in a pitcher’s duel between he and Vasquez, the veteran’s recent struggles and tepid underlying statistics make it impossible to strongly back the Blue Jays as -170 favorites on the moneyline. However, I do feel that runs will be scored early and often in this one, before each squad can turn to a well-rested and above-average bullpen.
Best Bet: First 5 Innings: Over 4.5 Runs (-135)
Toronto has shaken off a rough start offensively and sits sixth in wRC+ (117) and seventh in ISO (.172) so far in May.
Strong Lean: Daulton Varsho 2+ Total Bases (+110)
In his career, LHBs have hit .309 off Vasquez. Meanwhile, nine of Varsho’s 12 hits this season have gone for extra bases.
