Philadelphia walks into Coors Field as heavy -255 favorites, and the Rockies, sitting at 8-40, are again underdogs. The Phillies have been on fire lately, winning eight of their last 10 games, while the Rockies are mired in a 1-7 stretch. Recent form reflects the season at large, is what I’m saying. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Rockies and the Phillies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Rockies vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Taijuan Walker takes the mound for Philadelphia, and his 2.62 ERA this season reflects his excellent form. He’s been particularly solid on the road, posting a 1.69 ERA across three starts. With 31 strikeouts in 34.1 innings, Walker has shown he can miss bats. His numbers are even better against Colorado, where he threw six shutout innings earlier this year. The Rockies are tied for the highest strikeout rate in the majors (9.9 K/game), and Walker’s K/9 (8.1) should be more than enough to exploit their weaknesses. Walker’s xERA of 3.41 suggests that he has been a titch unlucky this season, and his actual ERA should improve.
The Phillies’ offense is relentless, ranking third in batting average (.264) and ninth in runs per game (4.8). Philadelphia also leads the MLB in wRC+ (109), and their offense has been firing on all cylinders. Kyle Schwarber leads the charge with 17 home runs and 37 RBIs. His power has kept the Phillies’ offense on track all season, and he’s been heating up, hitting .222 in his last five games, including two home runs. Schwarber’s 37.5% barrel rate ranks in the top 20 in MLB, showcasing his elite power. Bryce Harper (.272) has been scorching, batting .579 in his last five outings with three doubles and seven RBIs. Trea Turner (.305) continues to deliver consistency, and his speed adds another layer of pressure to an already formidable offense. Turner’s .366 wOBA shows his consistent ability to reach base and generate runs.
Colorado’s struggles are well-documented. They rank 28th in runs per game (3.3), and their .217 team batting average is second-worst in the league. Hunter Goodman (.285) leads the Rockies with 29 RBIs and seven home runs, but he ranks 29th in the league for RBIs. Goodman’s 42.7% hard-hit rate is impressive, but his 28.1% K-rate significantly hinders his consistency. Jordan Beck, with eight home runs, is their primary power threat, but he sits at 160th in the league for RBIs (16). Beck’s .381 xSLG suggests that his power numbers may be a bit inflated, so watch that. Ryan McMahon (.211) and Brenton Doyle (.208) have also been key contributors in the lineup, but their subpar batting averages highlight the Rockies’ overall offensive woes. McMahon’s .299 xwOBA and Doyle’s .261 xwOBA signal their struggles in generating consistent offense.
Phillies vs. Rockies pick, best bet
Colorado’s rotation has been a nightmare, ranking last in ERA (5.88) and WHIP (1.61). Carson Palmquist, the rookie left-hander, will make his second start after a disastrous debut. Palmquist allowed five earned runs in 4.1 innings against Arizona, and facing the Phillies’ lineup is a daunting task. His 11.25 ERA and 1.75 WHIP do not inspire confidence whatsoever against a team like Philadelphia. Palmquist’s 11.4% BB-rate is atrocious.
Recent betting trends further favor the Phillies. They’ve won 64.1% of games as favorites this season, with a 5-1 record when favored by -255 or more. Colorado, conversely, has only won seven games in 45 as underdogs this season. They’ve also struggled against teams with winning records, losing 10 of their last 11 Wednesday night games against such opponents. The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against teams with a losing record.
The Rockies’ offense will have to contend with Walker’s control, and their pitching staff has struggled to keep games close. With Palmquist facing a red-hot Phillies lineup, I expect a comfortable win for Philadelphia.
Best bet: Phillies -1.5 (-150) at Rockies
Rockies stink—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
