The Arizona Diamondbacks face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers in a pivotal NL West game three after an extra-innings tout yesterday evening. Despite the Dodgers’ diamond-studded roster, Arizona enters with both money momentum and the advantage on the mound. Corbin Burnes has returned to elite form, and the Diamondbacks’ offense has been solid enough to capitalize on a Dodgers squad that’s struggling to find consistency. This is a game where Arizona wants to snatch a critical win on the road. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
Burnes, with a 2.56 ERA (second in NL), is in his best form of the season. Over his last four starts, he’s allowed just two earned runs across 24 innings (0.75 ERA over last three starts). His control has been superb, limiting walks (2.2 BB/9), and keeping the ball in the park (only five HRs allowed this season). Against a Dodgers lineup that ranks second in runs scored, Burnes’ ability to neutralize their power will be paramount. His cutter has been a weapon, and his command of it gives Arizona an edge they can lean on tonight.
On the other hand, Dustin May has been far from dependable. His 4.43 ERA and 1.28 WHIP reflect a pitcher who’s struggled with command. He’s allowed four earned runs in two of his last three starts (5.1 IP per start over last three starts), and his inconsistency could prove disastrous against Arizona’s deep lineup. The Dodgers’ bullpen has been even more unreliable, ranking 16th in ERA (4.15 bullpen ERA) and coming off a taxing extra-inning game yesterday. The Diamondbacks will look to exploit that, especially as May’s exit leaves the game vulnerable to their aggressive offense.
Offensively, Arizona has shown they can hang with the best. With a .256 team batting average and 67 home runs (seventh in MLB), they are no strangers to power. Eugenio Suárez leads the charge with 14 home runs, while Geraldo Perdomo’s .403 OBP continues to be a catalyst for Arizona’s offense. Corbin Carroll has also been a game-changer, ranking near the top of the league in slugging (.597 SLG%). With Burnes on the mound, the Diamondbacks’ offense doesn’t need to be flawless, just opportunistic—and they’ve shown they can capitalize on pitchers like May.
The Dodgers’ lineup, led by Freddie Freeman’s elite .662 SLG% and Shohei Ohtani’s league-leading 17 home runs, is undoubtedly dangerous. However, Freeman’s barrel percentage has dropped to 0% in the last week; something’s up. And while Ohtani remains a threat, his contact rate against high-velocity pitchers like Burnes is below his season average. Upper-hand: Serpentes.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
While the Dodgers’ offense is terrifying, their recent form doesn’t inspire confidence. The team has lost four of its last five as favorites, and May’s inconsistency makes it hard to trust the Dodgers as a heavy favorite. They’ve been unable to cover the run line in their last five home games, and with the bullpen taxed (that ugly 5.59 bullpen ERA last seven days), they are vulnerable to late-game collapses.
Betting trends also favor the Diamondbacks. Arizona has covered the run line in 68% of their away games when underdogs, and they’ve been especially effective against NL West opponents (10-3 ATS against NL West this season). Meanwhile, the Dodgers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five at home. Arizona has also been resilient after extra-inning losses, making them a solid bet to bounce back strong tonight.
With a reeling bullpen, Arizona at +120 offers incredible value, I think.
Best bet: Diamondbacks (+120) at Dodgers
Bounceback for the Serpentes after a late night—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
