It’s a battle of David vs. Goliath at Dodger Stadium. The Diamondbacks will send spot-starter Ryne Nelson to the mound, while Los Angeles will counter with ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. On paper, this looks like a big win for the defending World Series champs. However, D-Backs fans have a few reasons to believe in an upset. Which of these NL West rivals will pull off a victory in SoCal?
Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook going into Tuesday’s contest.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
In a National League that’s loaded with quality arms, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is making a strong push for his first career Cy Young award. Through nine starts, the second-year pro has recorded a 2.12 ERA, 59 strikeouts and 0.98 WHIP. This season, opposing batters are hitting just .187 against Los Angeles’ ace.
For Arizona, Ryne Nelson will take the mound on Tuesday. The right-hander has been mediocre at best this season, pitching to a 5.13 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The veteran has only returned to the rotation due to an Eduardo Rodriguez injury (shoulder). However, he seems to have Los Angeles’ number over the years. Through 24.0 career innings of work against the Dodgers, Nelson has only allowed four earned runs (1.50 ERA). Several of LA’s best hitters have had issues with the 27-year-old, including Freddie Freeman (.200 career batting average), Shohei Ohtani (.125), and Andy Pages (.000).
On the flip side, Arizona has had success in this spot. When these teams met in Phoenix on May 8th, the Diamondbacks put up five runs over five innings vs. Yamamoto. In his only start since then, the Japanese hurler pitched six innings of three-run ball vs. the Athletics. Several Snakes hitters have done well historically against Yamamoto, including Ketel Marte (.429 BA) and Gabriel Moreno (.400).
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
Going against the Dodgers is often a fool’s errand, especially with their best starter on the mound. Yamamoto is unlikely to get shelled tonight, but Arizona has scored the fifth-most runs per game in baseball (5.25). Any lineup with Marte (149 wRC+), Corbin Carroll (155 wRC+) and Josh Naylor (126 wRC+) warrants respect. This month, the Diamondbacks rank third in baseball with a .276 batting average; Los Angeles is first (.290).
It’s reasonable to think Nelson is due for a rough start vs. LA. It’s hard to think of a more middling pitcher that’s dominated an offense with this much firepower. Still, 24 innings isn’t exactly a small sample size. When attempting to fade a juggernaut Dodgers team, we’ll take almost anything we can get. At even money, I like Arizona’s chances at keeping this one close.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks +1.5 (+102)
The Dodgers get it done…but the D-Backs make things interesting during an intense NL West showdown.
