Baseball. Bets. Another word that starts with the letter B. That’s why we’re here.
It’s a full slate of action on the diamond this evening, so allow me to narrow the field and supply my top picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday evening.
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Nick Martinez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Martinez is not a strikeout artist by any means, though he has managed to clear this prop in two of his last three starts. How? It’s really as simple as working deep into games. The 34-year-old has gone at least six innings in each of his past four outings and five times in total so far in 2025. Not surprisingly, Martinez has accumulated at least five strikeouts in three of those contests. Conversely, he’s only hit this over once in the four starts where he’s failed to pitch six frames.
So, can you feel confident that Martinez will flirt with the seventh inning on Tuesday? I think so. That’s how poorly the Pirates have hit across the past two weeks. It’s a span where the team is slashing a paltry .194/.262/.274, with league-worst marks in both wOBA (.243) and wRC+ (48). It’s also a stretch of time where Pittsburgh happens to sport MLB’s third-highest strikeout rate at 27.5%, which could give Martinez the boost he needs even if he’s not as efficient as he’d like. Either way, all signs point to an over in this spot.
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
Braves Over 4.5 Runs (-125)
After a very successful run to start the season, the wheels have fallen off for Mitchell Parker. Dating back to April 27, a span of four appearances and 17.2 innings, the left-hander is in possession of an ugly 9.68 ERA. It’s also a stretch where Parker has walked more opponents (13) than he’s struck out (12), which is pretty much the universal symbol that a pitcher just doesn’t have it at the moment. Shockingly, Parker has allowed all these runs without giving up a single long ball. Heck, with a 0.18 HR/9, Parker’s surrendered fewer home runs per nine than any qualified pitcher in baseball. Needless to say, when regression hits in that department, things are going to get even more ugly.
The Braves saw Parker last week in Atlanta and they scored four runs off the southpaw. In general, the Braves have not hit LHPs well in 2025 — Ozzie Albies’ struggles have played a massive role — but the familiarity with Parker should favor Atlanta in this spot. This also isn’t exclusively about Washington’s starter. The Nationals’ bullpen enters play on Tuesday rocking a 6.55 ERA that ranks as the highest mark in the NL. Don’t be surprised if Atlanta’s lineup flexes its muscle long after Parker’s left this contest.
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
Yankees -1.5 (-105)
Look, we’ve all gone through the Patrick Corbin experience this season. There was the initial laughter at the Rangers for bringing in a man that sported the league’s worst ERA from 2021 to 2025. Then there was the confusion, as Corbin survived his first couple of starts with the team. Now there’s the hesitation to trust if the 3.35 ERA across his seven outings is in any way sustainable. Well, I’m here to ease your mind. It’s not. It is most assuredly not. Corbin’s 4.51 SIERA and 4.74 FIP are far better examples of where the left-hander’s talent level currently sits, it’s simply a matter of when a career-low .278 BABIP and a career-high 86.5% strand rate normalize. That process might even begin tonight.
Corbin and the rest of Texas’ roster will travel to the Bronx to take on the Yankees this evening and it would be a massive understatement to suggest that New York has been good against southpaws so far in 2025 — because its absolutely destroyed them. To wit, the Yankees lead MLB in ISO (.237), wOBA (.372) and wRC+ (147) within the split.
Will Warren is another huge element of liking New York on the run line. The rookie has had some shaky outings this season and he’s often seen a quick hook from Aaron Boone, yet Warren is on the heels of undoubtedly his two best starts of 2025. The 25-year-old tossed a combined 12.1 innings versus the Athletics and the Mariners in the Yankees’ recent west coast road trip, allowing only three earned runs and registering a tantalizing 8.00 K/BB ratio in the process.
