The wait is over for Brock Purdy and 49ers fans. Their franchise quarterback has his new contract.
Now, the questions begin for this 49ers team. They still have a contract to negotiate with George Kittle, but other than that, the core is locked in and primed to rebound this season. And when looking at the MVP odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook, Purdy at +3000 sticks out like a sore thumb to me.
The MVP award is based on as much on a good story as anybody’s play. Patrick Mahomes would win just about every season if it were a pure, distilled version of picking the most VALUABLE player. But we’re all sick of the Chiefs, so nobody cares when his entire WR group gets shown the door and he improves.
The 49ers were primed to experience similar fatigue going into last year. They had a loaded offense, and Purdy was a feel-good story as the former Mr. Irrelevant became a Pro Bowl-level quarterback, which culminated in a fourth-place MVP finish. Had Purdy improved last year, he wouldn’t be sniffing an MVP award barring extenuating circumstances or a massive statistical jump.
Instead, the 49ers suffered every injury and off-field ailment possible, and finished the year 6-11. The reset button was hit on the hype train. And though the stats paint a grim picture, Purdy improved his down-to-down quarterbacking last season as his supporting cast fell apart around him, including some of Purdy’s injuries.
Also working in his favor is the perceived loss of talent this offseason. Though the memories of Deebo Samuel remain, he’s far removed from his last elite season, but his perception remains higher than his production amongst media members. It’s possible that more snaps for Ricky Pearsall, a more accomplished route runner without years of hits on his body, is a boon for Purdy.
The San Francisco 49ers also benefit from playing a last-place schedule this year. Outside their two divisional contests with the Rams, the Niners play two playoff teams from last season: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Houston Texans. No teams they play this year won more than 10 games last season, and only six of their 17 opponents finished above .500. If the Niners stay healthy, it wouldn’t be a massive shock to see them win 13+ games and contend for the top seed in the NFC.
The schedule is bad, and the 49ers are good. The offensive core is together and healthy going into the year. That added up to a fourth-place MVP finish two years ago. Purdy can continue to grow and post some big stats, say 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns, in addition to racking up a whole lot of wins. That would make for a good story and place him squarely in the MVP conversation. Does that sound like something that has a one in 30 chance as the odds would suggest?
San Francisco enters this year as the favorites to win the NFC West at +145 odds. It also is +950 to win the NFC and +2000 to win the Super Bowl on DraftKings Sportsbook.
