In an ideal world, the Las Vegas Raiders’ first overall pick, Fernando Mendoza, wouldn’t see the field at all this season, sitting and learning behind Kirk Cousins as he prepares to become the Raiders’ quarterback of the future. Las Vegas brought in Cousins to serve as a mentor for Mendoza in the offseason, recognizing that it was unlikely to be competitive this season.
Through three weeks, the Raiders’ plan worked to perfection, as they got off to a stunning 3-0 start and Cousins was playing like an MVP candidate, but they’ve since lost three straight games, and Mendoza looked comfortable in the fourth quarter of a blowout against the New England Patriots. Eventually, Las Vegas could convince itself that he is ready for the change.
When that happens, Mendoza could become a fantasy asset. He is owned in just 5% of Yahoo Sports fantasy leagues, but he could be worth picking up and stashing in the likelihood that the Raiders eventually give their top pick a chance.
Results and Usage
Mendoza was pretty effective on his lone drive, completing six of his eight passes for 48 yards and often going beyond his first read, escaping pressure several times and finishing without a sack. He clearly proved in his lone season at Indiana that he was capable of succeeding in a pro-style offense, completing 72.0% of his passes for 3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns, and just six interceptions to lead the Hoosiers to a national title and secure the Heisman Trophy.
Mendoza wasn’t as impressive during the preseason, as he went just 25-for-45 (55.6%) for 240 yards, throwing one touchdown pass to two interceptions. Las Vegas’ offensive line did him no favors in the preseason, but he invited pressure upon himself by holding onto the ball too long. Still, preseason numbers should be taken with several grains of salt, and he was never considered a surefire, league-ready superstar, so the fact that he didn’t immediately adjust to the speed of the NFL game shouldn’t be a major concern.
Future Outlook
There’s precedent for a highly-touted prospect to sit behind a veteran for almost all of his rookie season before hitting the ground running the following season. Patrick Mahomes wasn’t quite as high-profile a prospect in 2017 as Mendoza in 2026, as he was selected 10th overall and didn’t receive a single vote for the 2016 Heisman Trophy. Still, the Kansas City Chiefs sat him for the entire season to learn behind Alex Smith, starting him in Week 17 while resting Smith ahead of the playoffs. Of course, Mahomes went on to win MVP in 2018 and has since emerged as a certain future Hall of Famer.
For his part, Cousins isn’t doing anything to lose the job. Although he hasn’t been quite as good this season as Smith was in 2017 (Smith led the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt, interception rate, and passer rating that season, making the Pro Bowl), Cousins leads the NFL in touchdown passes while completing passes at a rate 2.5 percentage points higher than expected. By Pro Football Focus’ standards, Cousins has been the 14th-best among 38 qualified passers, and in the likelihood that the Raiders miss the playoffs, it’ll more likely be a function of Ashton Jeanty’s inefficiency, offensive line play, and a pitiful secondary than Cousins. Between tight end Brock Bowers and Jeanty, Las Vegas has the tools to help Cousins continue to be productive.
However, Mendoza should be able to take over for him eventually. He has some of the same skills as Cousins, whose mobility isn’t his biggest selling point. Bowers has been especially effective on intermediate throws, and Mendoza was pretty solid on such plays in his senior year. He was especially effective on throws up the middle of the field, where Bowers sees most of his volume. Additionally, Mendoza’s timing on throws behind the line of scrimmage should allow Jeanty to work as a receiver, where he’s been able to more effectively use his power in open space. Mendoza should be able to put up numbers from the moment he’s put in the starting lineup, which I expect to happen at some point later this season.
