For Manchester United and Tottenham, the big day has arrived. Both teams have long been eliminated from contention to win the Premier League and even to qualify for next season’s Champions League through their domestic finish. Each is guaranteed to post its worst finish in the Premier League, as the Red Devils sit 16th and Spurs 17th, although each is well clear of the relegation zone.
Each giant’s poor league form will be irrelevant on Wednesday night, when they clash at San Mamés in Bilbao, Spain in the Europa League final. The game will kick off at 3 p.m. ET, with the winner playing Champions League football in 2025-26 and the loser crashing out of Europe entirely.
It’s worth noting that the teams have met three times already this season, twice in the league and once in the quarterfinals of the Carabao Cup. Tottenham has won all three.
Despite the previous results, United is a +140 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the tie in regular time, with Spurs at +190, and there are +235 odds that the teams will require extra time. The Red Devils are -135 to ultimately lift the trophy, with Tottenham at +105. Here are my best bets from the game.
Manchester United Moneyline (+140)
I wanted to believe Ange Postecoglou’s claims about winning trophies in his second season after having done so with the Brisbane Roar, Yokohama F Marinos, and Celtic. It’s not a bad argument, and indeed, Spurs should feel good about their chances of winning their first major piece of silverware since 2008, but headed into the Europa League final, United is the better side. Tottenham was less convincing in its 5-1 semifinals win over Norwegian side Bodø/Glimt than the Red Devils were in throttling Athletic Bilbao, 7-1, on aggregate, and Bilbao — which sits fourth in La Liga and has secured UCL football for next season — is a better side than the 2024 Norwegian champions.
Postecoglou’s side has too many injury concerns for me to trust it in the final. Dejan Kulusevski, a Swedish attacking midfielder who has appeared in all but four of Spurs’ Premier League games this season and registered 11 goal contributions, was forced off after just 18 minutes last week against Crystal Palace after suffering a season-ending knee injury. He joins James Maddison, the club’s joint-top contributor in the league, as well as young countryman Lucas Bergvall, on the pine. Tottenham might have no midfielders in its squad if one of Pape Matar Sarr, Rodrigo Bentancur, or Yves Bissouma goes down.
It’s not like United’s domestic form has been great, either — each side has taken one point from its last five Premier League matches — but it has the best player on either team in captain Bruno Fernandes, who’s the Europa League’s joint top scorer, as well as André Onana, who’s eighth in saves. Noussair Mazraoui is part of a young and exciting Moroccan contingent, ranking in the 99th percentile among fullbacks in Europe’s top five leagues in tackles, and Ivorian attacking midfielder Amad Diallo has shown loads of all-around promise.
Bruno Fernandes to Score or Give Assist (+115)
The Red Devils captain is one of the more underrated players in the Premier League, having recorded 17 goal contributions domestically this season and 11 more in the Europa League. He’s United’s spot-taker, and he’s been as steady as ever this season, nailing all three of his penalties in the Premier League and all four in the Europa League. Fernandes’ versatility is an asset; he’s played in a variety of different roles this season, both in the midfield and along the wing, ranking near the top quartile in all defensive and distributive categories among attackers and near the top decile in attacking categories among midfielders.
Spurs haven’t had a problem putting the ball in the back of the net this season, ranking sixth in the league with 63 goals scored. The issue is that their defense has been extremely leaky, having allowed the fifth-most goals. Center back Mickey van de Ven, who will likely mark Fernandes for at least some of the game, is more of an attack-oriented defender, ranking in the top quintile in most attacking stats but in the bottom quintile in tackles, interceptions, blocks, and clearances. Cristian Romero is more well-rounded, and right-back Pedro Porro and left-back Destiny Udogie are better, but all it takes is one weak link for a player as skilled as Fernandes — who’s had at least one goal contribution in each of his last five Europa League matches — to take advantage.
Yves Bissouma 3+ Tackles (+100)
One advantage of Tottenham’s injury issue is that Bissouma, who ranks in the 90th percentile in tackles per 90 minutes among midfielders in Europe’s top five leagues, will probably end up playing the entire match. The Malian has been a nightmare for opposing dribblers this season in the Europa League, recording 18 tackles, winning 11 out of his 14 challenges, and adding an additional 12 interceptions and 14 clearances in just 6.3 90s. He’s played all 90 minutes in four Europa League matches, notching three or more tackles thrice, including in the first leg of the semifinal against Bodø/Glimt.
Dribbling is the one place where Fernandes has really struggled, as his take-on success rate has declined from 71.4% his first season in the Premier League to just 40.9% this season, and he was tackled 33 times. Also, United ranked second-to-last in the Premier League — coincidentally, ahead of only Spurs — in successful take-on percentage, and it’s also been tackled the sixth-most times of any club. Furthermore, it’s a club-wide issue; no Red Devil ranks in the top 10 in individual successful take-on percentage in the Premier League. Bissouma has only played 13 minutes total against Manchester United this season in all competitions, but registered two tackles in that time.
